$UNI, $ACT and other coins fluctuate with the US stock market, and investors are all focused on the same question – what exactly is the Fed doing?

Another 25 basis point rate cut has arrived. After the third round of adjustments in 2025, the federal funds rate has dropped to 3.6%, which theoretically should benefit risk assets. But reality slapped the market in the face—after initially rising, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell, leaving global funds in confusion. This is not a market rescue; it is clearly adding fuel to the fire.

The data is right in front of us, and the hidden concerns are evident. The core PCE has only dropped to 2.83%, still far from the 2% target. What's even more heart-wrenching is that the "super core inflation" (the prices of services excluding housing costs) is stuck at 3.3%, showing no improvement month-on-month. Service prices are inherently sticky, and with tariff policies raising import costs and sustained strong consumer demand, cutting interest rates at this time is tantamount to going against the tide.

The most ironic part comes - the political agenda begins to hijack economic decisions. The current government is pressuring for the mid-term elections, claiming that the interest rate cuts are not large enough, and there are even signals suggesting replacing the "obedient" Fed chairman. The national debt has already surpassed 37.7 trillion, and the interest savings from each rate cut are used to pave the way for elections, gradually eroding the independence of the Fed. Voting divisions have reached a recent high, and the century-old tradition of independence is in jeopardy.

The market has long sensed this unsettling vibe. The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury is still above 4.1%, and long-term inflation expectations are continuously rising. In the past, it was enough for the Fed to just watch the data; now, it must first turn the political calendar. Once political pressure forces excessive rate cuts, how great will the risk of inflation rebound be? The stagflation nightmare of the 1970s may reappear.

The Fed is walking on a tightrope, and global assets are waiting for the next move. The crypto market is especially sensitive—resurgent inflation means increased demand for safe-haven assets, but policy turmoil could also trigger panic selling. What is your judgment?