#大户持仓动态 The Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike on the 19th, and Bitcoin has been repeatedly testing around 86K. The comments section is full of questions: Is this the bottom? Is it the right time to get in now? To be honest, no one can provide an accurate answer, but past data can help us see some things clearly.

Let’s pull up the historical line: How did the last round of interest rate hikes go?

In March 2024, Bitcoin plunged 23% to 27%, which lasted for 6 weeks. In July, it happened again, with a more severe drop (26% to 30%), and there was also the flash crash on August 5, which dragged on for 8 weeks. By January 2025, there was the biggest drop of all — a direct hit of 31%, lasting for 7 weeks before recovering. On average, each drop was around 27%, lasting about a month and a half.

What might happen if this time it follows this rhythm as well?

Worst case scenario: drop to 70K (a 19% drop from here), dragging on until the end of January 2026. Middle scenario: drop to 75K (about a 13% drop), bottoming out around mid-January. Most optimistic? Holding at 80K, stabilizing within two weeks.

However, to put it another way, this time might really be different. Some new variables are stirring the pot - Ueda Kazuo's attitude towards next year's interest rate hike plan (this is the real thunder), institutions are freezing positions until January next year, plus on the day of the triple witching in the US stock market, there will be trillions of dollars in options expiring, which will definitely cause fluctuations. But conversely, risk signals are also flashing.

So what do we do now? History has given us three lessons, all of which are quite painful:

**Article 1**: Don't try to bottom out on the day of a rate hike. In the past three instances, those who jumped in on that day ended up getting trapped in the following weeks. Not a single exception.

**Article 2**: Be patient and wait for 6 to 8 weeks. The true bottom often does not appear at the first moment, but rather within the window of the 6th to 8th week after the interest rate hike.

**Article 3**: Focus on ETF funds. When you see three consecutive days of net inflow, that is the real signal that institutions are bottom-fishing, and that is when it is worth following up.

I won't tell you when to buy or sell, but I want you to understand one thing: history often doesn't repeat itself exactly, but the rhythm is often similar. Whenever everyone in the market is asking, "Will this time be different?" the market always responds in the most ruthless way - most of the time, it really is just like that.

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