#数字资产市场洞察 $BTC has indeed sparked a lot of discussion at this position. There is a saying circulating in the market that "as long as US Treasury bonds continue to rise, BTC will always have an increase". At first glance, the logic seems coherent, but upon closer inspection, it becomes interesting.

The data is presented here: The BTC/U.S. Treasury ratio is at 2.29. The scale of U.S. debt is like a runaway wild horse, rising fiercely. Historically, during periods of rising U.S. debt, BTC has indeed often followed suit — this correlation exists. But the question is, what is the essence of this linkage? It is nothing more than a reflection of liquidity expectations and expectations for loose monetary policy.

What does the current position of 2.29 mean? From a technical perspective, this is a point that needs serious consideration. The probability of a pullback is always there; the market doesn't have an absolute "forever rise" script. Macroeconomic environment, policy changes, market sentiment—any variable's fluctuation can rewrite the narrative.

So instead of believing in "US debt rise means easy wins", it is better to calmly consider: the macro driving force does exist, but the risks are also real. The logic chain of this market trend must hold up, and the fundamental support must be genuine and effective.