#数字资产市场洞察 The capital dilemma behind the appreciation of the RMB: Beware of the wave of arbitrage rushing into the crypto world.

Recently, the appreciation of the Renminbi has become a hot topic. Looking back at history, during Japan's deflation period, the yen also experienced a similar appreciation. The reason is quite straightforward - the central bank has confidence in the resilience of the economy and is naturally unwilling to significantly loosen monetary policy or cut interest rates. Our current situation has a somewhat similar flavor to it.

But this is a double-edged sword. The appreciation of the Renminbi sounds good, but in reality, it means that the prices of exported goods rise, which weakens competitiveness in international trade. The demand for imports is already limited, so the effect of stimulating the economy is not significant, and it instead drags down overall economic growth.

The more critical issue is the change at the capital level. Under the pressure of appreciation, a large amount of capital will seek to go overseas for Arbitrage - this is what is commonly referred to as the "Mrs. Watanabe" phenomenon in financial markets. RMB appreciation → capital outflow → entering the international market to seek returns. The question arises: Can capital control measures effectively intercept this?

Once traditional channels are restricted, capital will naturally seek new outlets. The crypto world and stablecoin market have become a way to bypass regulations and achieve capital flow. This presents both opportunities and challenges for the crypto market—capital inflow drives up asset prices, but regulatory risks also follow.

The BTC market is still in a watchful period, with the Christmas holiday approaching, we need to be wary of sudden situations causing disruptions. Let's continue to pay attention to market trends, remain alert to risks, but also don't miss potential allocation opportunities during the appreciation cycle.