#数字资产市场洞察 $BTC $ZEC $XRP

The global financial landscape is being reshuffled. The first move made by Trump after taking office was to target the Federal Reserve - explicitly calling for the replacement of Powell. This is not just a simple personnel change; behind it lies a power struggle that concerns global asset prices.

**Why must we change people?**

Trump's logic is quite straightforward: interest rates are too high. He needs to lower rates to stimulate a rise in the stock market and reduce financing costs, in order to present a strong economic report before the midterm elections in 2026. However, Powell is conservative on inflation and employment issues and is reluctant to follow the crowd blindly. Time is running out, and Trump can't wait, so a change is necessary.

This seems to be an economic policy issue, but in reality, it is a tool for the election campaign. Lowering interest rates can immediately boost market sentiment, which directly helps with re-election.

**What do the three candidates have in common?**

Hasset, Wosh, Weller - their backgrounds are different on the surface; one is a former government official, one has a strong Wall Street background, and one is from academia. But their commonality hits the nail on the head: they are all seen as more likely to cooperate with the White House's demands for interest rate cuts.

The more "obedient" someone is, the higher their chances of getting promoted.

**Where are the hidden risks?**

This is the crux of the problem. Once the independence of the Federal Reserve is interpreted by the market as a "political tool", the last stabilizing anchor of the global financial system will be gone.

Imagine this: future policy decisions will no longer primarily consider inflation and employment, but will first look at the attitude of the White House. What will this lead to? Signal confusion, expectation volatility, and a failure of the market pricing mechanism. Traders will be caught in a dilemma: either become a puppet of political decisions or pay the price for policy failures.

Sensitive to the cryptocurrency market. Assets like $BTC and $ETH react sharply to policy expectations. If central bank policies become black box operations, volatility will become the norm—wild fluctuations in both directions are unpredictable.

**What impact does it have on your wallet?**

In the short term, expectations of interest rate cuts will bring about a rise in asset prices. The stock market and cryptocurrency assets may benefit, and monthly payments will also decrease. But this is just a temporary solution.

In the long run, a central bank that loses its independence means a significant decline in policy credibility. Once the market no longer believes in the central bank's commitments, the credit system will be shaken, and at that time, the fluctuations in asset prices will not be moderate adjustments, but rather a cliff-like drop.

**The next three signals to watch out for:**

1. **Final Nominee** - Will Trump choose an absolute loyalist, or will he leave some dignity?
2. **Congressional Hearing** - How do candidates "perform" independence in front of the public? Will the market believe it?
3. **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations** — Are markets pricing in euphoria or panic?

With these three steps completed, the direction of global asset prices is basically determined. From the stock market to cryptocurrency, from exchange rates to commodities, everything will dance to this rhythm.

Now is the best observation window period. What do you think?