As the Christmas holiday approaches, the global financial markets are also entering the traditional "Christmas rally" period. On the surface, the trading week appears calm, but in reality, there are undercurrents—several significant decisions are piling up right now, directly affecting how the market will move at the end of the year.

The most heart-wrenching issue in the past two weeks has undoubtedly been whether Trump will announce the new Federal Reserve chair nomination during the Christmas period. The current prediction data is quite interesting: Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, has the highest probability of being nominated, around 54%; former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh has about a 21% chance; and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has 14%. The policy inclinations of these three candidates vary significantly, and whoever ultimately wins will have a substantial impact on market expectations.

Additionally, we should pay attention to the U.S. GDP data for the third quarter - this can truly test whether this round of interest rate cuts has had any effect. At the same time, don't miss the speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, as he may reveal some directional information about Japan's monetary policy in 2026.

**How will the Christmas market trend? Historical data has something to say**

Looking back at the historical Christmas market for Bitcoin, it is clear that there is no fixed pattern. Data from the past seven years shows that the probability of Bitcoin rising or falling during the Christmas period is basically 50/50, with an upward probability of about 57%, which means it is difficult to predict.

Specifically, let's look at the performance of Bitcoin over the past 7 complete Christmas-New Year cycles (approximately from December 24 to January 3-5 of the following year):

The 2024 cycle (12.24→2025.01.03) recorded a small increase of +3.67%; the 2023 cycle (12.22→2024.01.03) saw a slight decline of -2.33%; the performance in 2022 was nearly flat, with only +0.08%.

This data tells us a reality: don’t expect any Christmas magic or market trends; the market is influenced by macro policies much more than seasonal patterns. In the coming period, the appointments and dismissals of Federal Reserve officials, economic data, and central bank policies are the hard information that will truly determine the direction of Bitcoin.