2025-12-22 03:23:05

The Christmas week market is coming, and the market rhythm will change. The US stock market will close early on Wednesday and will be closed all day on Thursday due to Christmas; the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will have a half-day trading on Wednesday, and the New York Stock Exchange will close at 2 AM Beijing time on December 25. During the holiday period, a tightening of liquidity is highly likely, and the fluctuation risks of Bitcoin and other encryption assets need to be taken particularly seriously.

More importantly, the candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair is about to be revealed. Trump has made a decision, and it is highly likely that the announcement will be made around Christmas. The current rankings of potential candidates look like this: Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, has the highest probability at about 54%. He is a core advisor to Trump and advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, a position that aligns with the White House's ideas. However, his nomination rumors have already pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4% in the past couple of days. Next is former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh, with a probability of 21%, followed by Governor Christopher Waller at 14%. The final candidate will directly influence market expectations regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, which in turn directly affects the pricing in the encryption market.

Economic data and events to watch next week:

On Tuesday, the U.S. third-quarter economic data was released—initial value of the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP (previously a 2.8% growth, below expectations), initial value of the annualized quarter-on-quarter personal consumption expenditures (previous value a 3.7% increase, the main driver of economic growth), and the initial value of the annualized quarter-on-quarter core PCE price index. These figures can better illustrate the true state of inflation and economic resilience, providing more basis for guidance on Federal Reserve policy.

The minutes from the Bank of Canada's meeting will be released on Wednesday, which will show how they are considering the interest rate issue; at the same time, the initial jobless claims data for the week ending December 20 in the United States will also be announced, reflecting the degree of relaxation in the labor market.

On Thursday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak at the Japan Business Federation, which may reveal signals for a monetary policy adjustment; the unemployment rate data for Japan in November will be released simultaneously.

Liquidity tension + data-intensive + policy suspense, the encryption market needs to be well prepared this week.

BTC1.21%

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NeverPresent

· 7h ago

Hassett went up to directly open the roll, and Bitcoin followed suit. During this period of tightening liquidity, we still need to stay alert and keep an eye on things. The enthusiasm is good, but I have a feeling that GDP might flip. With this wave of data coming out, it feels like it will shake until dawn. It's only after the Fed chairman is set that it will really start; right now, it's just the prelude. Holiday markets are the most annoying; I can't sleep due to the time difference and still have to watch the market. The probability of Waller is indeed a bit low; Trump is not this style. If PCE really falls below expectations, the interest rate cut expectations might reverse. This week, we really need to guard our position well and not blow up at this node.

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StakeWhisperer

· 7h ago

Hassett taking office means a crazy interest rate cut, which is crucial for the crypto world, but we still have to be careful with liquidity tightening this week. --- Every holiday is like this, the market feels super thin, and we need to reduce our contract position by half. --- With the suspense around the Fed chairman, it's like a gamble... but once the interest rate cut expectations come out, Bitcoin should soar, right? --- Next week has such dense data? I can't even take a holiday; it's the fate of watching the market. --- 54% chance for Hassett, so I’ll bet he gets in; the interest rate cut expectations are enough to stir up speculation. --- Hong Kong stocks will only have half-day trading on Wednesday? Once liquidity tightens, coins will be whipsawed; we need to take profit in advance. --- U.S. Treasury yields have dropped below 4%, this signal is a bit intense. --- By the way, will there really be someone still watching Candlesticks during Christmas week? I might just slack off until the New Year. --- The Bank of Japan governor's speech also needs to be listened to? Global central banks need to speak out, and the pressure in the crypto market is huge.

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StealthMoon

· 7h ago

Hassett has a 54% probability, right? That means the interest rate cut expectation is locked in, and BTC is on the rhythm to da moon. --- During those days of tight liquidity, definitely don't have a full position, I see signals that look like dumping. --- I hate the Christmas holidays the most, open orders on the exchange can't move, just waiting to be played for suckers. --- This matter with the Fed chairman is probably just hype, in the end, it might not go as expected. --- If Tuesday's data doesn't meet expectations, the interest rate cut will be off, and the crypto world will fall again. --- Waller is only at 14%, it seems Trump already has someone in mind. --- There are too many things this week, I still prefer to reduce position for safety.

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AirdropSkeptic

· 7h ago

If Hassert takes office, the interest rate cut expectations will be fully pumped, BTC is really going to soar --- Be careful during this tightening of liquidity, don't get trapped --- With so much data next week? It feels like something is going to happen --- U.S. Treasury yields have dropped below 4, the market is already pricing in an interest rate cut --- The most annoying thing during the Christmas holidays is this kind of uncertainty, it can surge at any moment --- The probability for Waller is only 21%, feels like Hassert is more stable --- If the unemployment data relaxes, will the Fed not rush to cut rates? --- Encryption is just waiting to see what the Fed chairman decides, it's really all up to this --- The Bank of Japan also needs to keep an eye on it, global central banks are all taking action

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