#数字资产市场洞察 The Fed chairman candidate has unexpected variables, the crypto market faces a critical crossroads.

On December 21, 2025, the global prediction market Polymarket reported significant data: the probability of Hassett being the next Fed chair has risen to 56%, with Walsh at 22% and Waller at 12%. These numbers represent real monetary bets in the market, reflecting Wall Street's reevaluation of policy direction.

Why does this matter for your $BTC and Ethereum? Because Fed policies directly affect global liquidity. Hassett, a former economic advisor to Trump, tends to lean towards a hawkish stance on monetary policy. If he is elected, the Fed may face pressure to raise interest rates and reduce its balance sheet, and the appreciation of the dollar often accompanies capital outflows from high-risk assets (including encryption). Historical data speaks: during the last round of Fed policy shifts, Bitcoin's single drop exceeded 30%.

From the perspective of market participants, the tens of millions of dollars in bets on Polymarket indicate that large funds are preparing for this scenario. What are they doing? We should also consider:

**Response Strategies Before Liquidity Contraction**: Reducing high leverage exposure is the first prudent step. Many people are accustomed to operating with full leverage, but during periods of policy shifts, this approach carries significant risks. Shifting to stablecoin holdings allows for flexibility, enabling one to wait for clearer market sentiment before intervening, which can actually capture more certain opportunities.

**The Importance of Information Sources**: Every public statement made by Hasset can become a market trigger point. Paying attention to official statements, hearings, and other first-hand information is often more valuable than second-hand analysis.

**The Other Side of the Market**: Although the crypto market is highly volatile, the volatility itself creates opportunities. There have always been victory stories of bottom fishers in the crypto world—provided you survive to see the bottom. Staying rational and not being overwhelmed by panic is, in fact, a core competitive advantage in such events.

Overall, the change of the Fed chair is not the end of the world, but rather a stress test for the market. The key is to think ahead, respond calmly, and not be led by the headlines. The crypto market always presents opportunities, but those opportunities are always reserved for the prepared.