#大户持仓动态 The real threat facing is the withdrawal wave of Japanese household finances.

Wall Street is focused on hedge funds, but has overlooked a bigger problem: Japan's "Mrs. Watanabe."

On December 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, a new high in 30 years. It may not sound like much, but the implications are significant. This group of housewife investors controlling $15 trillion in household assets is quietly changing the flow of global capital.

**Arbitrage Trading Breakdown**

In recent years, there has been a game called "Yen Arbitrage Trading" going on. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates while the Bank of Japan remains inactive—the resulting interest rate differential is money. Borrowing yen to invest in U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and crypto assets to earn interest differentials. It's great.

But now it's different. The Federal Reserve has indeed started to cut interest rates, while the Bank of Japan has raised rates instead. The interest rate spread has been squeezed to nothing. The cost of yen-denominated debt that was originally borrowed has skyrocketed, and the positions worth trillions of yen cannot be settled.

**US stocks and bonds have become a cash machine**

To repay the yen debt, where will these funds come from? They will be withdrawn from U.S. stocks and bonds. This is not a mild reduction in positions; it is a massive sell-off.

Institutional deleveraging comes in waves that the market can digest. However, this trillion-level forced liquidation due to debt repayment is more impactful. With liquidity drying up, the risk of a dual blow to both stocks and bonds is indeed on the table.

**New Destination for Hot Money**

Traditional financial markets are in turmoil, and investors are not foolish; they begin to seek safe havens. At this time, community assets with high consensus and strong resilience have become the target of hot money. $BTC, $ASR, $BTC and other high-consensus currencies often move against the trend during this liquidity crisis.

When the market repair seems to be a long way off, instead of just sitting idle, it's better to keep an eye on those sectors with solid community fundamentals. We still need to keep track of the movements of the whales.