Recently, after the release of the US November CPI data, the entire market has reacted noticeably warmer. The impact of this data on encryption assets is worth a thorough analysis.

First, let’s look at the core numbers: The CPI in November fell to 2.7% year-on-year, and the core CPI also showed a notable decline. These two indicators are directly related to the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and are key references for determining the timing of interest rate cuts. Previously, the Federal Reserve consistently emphasized that inflation had not reached the 2% target, using this reason to maintain a high interest rate policy. Now that the CPI has gradually decreased from its previous high to 2.7%, it is getting closer to the 2% target, which undermines the Federal Reserve's justification for continuing to maintain high interest rates.

This transformation is significant. The market has been overshadowed by the "interest rate hike cycle" for the past six months—FOMC meeting expectations, inflation data, and policy signals have all become the main factors suppressing encryption assets. Now that inflation pressures have clearly eased, the situation has completely reversed.

From a market perspective, the continued decline of the CPI is not an isolated event, but a clear signal that inflation is entering a downward channel. This directly raises the probability of entering a rate-cutting cycle in early 2026, upgrading the original forecast to a high probability expectation. For mainstream encryption assets like ETH, this shift in expectation is often accompanied by an improvement in the liquidity environment, which may become an important catalyst for the next stage of market rebound.

Overall, this wave of CPI data marks a substantial turning point in the market environment. Both traditional finance and the encryption market have begun to reprice the changes in policy expectations.