#以太坊行情解读 Market volatility! Japanese retail investors may trigger global capital flows.

Interestingly, Dogecoin, which was initially just an internet joke, can now be used to directly buy houses and cars in Japan. Brands like Starbucks, LV, and Ferrari support payments in it, and even Tesla's peripheral products have adopted it. After Japan's officials incorporated it into the financial product system, the market gave a short-term price expectation of $2 and a long-term expectation of $7.2. The Musk effect, combined with community consensus, means this wave of memes is still on the rise.

But the real danger signals come from another angle. Those Japanese retail investors (commonly referred to as "Mrs. Watanabe") have been playing an arbitrage game for years: borrowing low-interest yen to buy stocks and bonds in the U.S., profiting from the interest rate differential. Now that the Federal Reserve is starting to cut interest rates while the Bank of Japan is raising them, this interest rate differential game is about to collapse. It is said that the scale of the funds involved could reach trillions; once they start to sell off U.S. assets en masse to exchange for yen, global stock markets, bond markets, and currency markets will all be shaken.

There is still an X factor that cannot be ignored. The choice of the Federal Reserve Chairman has not yet been determined, with Hassett having the highest probability (around 56%). This guy is a typical monetary easing advocate, and if he takes office, he will definitely open the floodgates, which will create opportunities for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others. If the tightening faction's Walsh is elected, the crypto community needs to prepare for a winter. In simple terms, this is a power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve, and the final policy tone can directly determine the life and death of the cryptocurrency market.

The options in front of us are these few: first, to follow the trend of Dogecoin in Japan; second, to bet on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut; third, to hold onto our bullets and wait for the rebound opportunity after Mrs. Watanabe's sell-off. What do you think?