The Fed has trimmed interest rates, and the crypto world was originally expecting a wave of market activity, but BTC is still lukewarm. The logic behind this may be much more complex than you think.

What really stirs the market is a group of Japanese housewives. They have a nickname called "Mrs. Watanabe." These individuals hold a massive amount of savings from Japanese households and have been playing the same game for years: borrowing nearly zero-interest yen, exchanging it for dollars to buy US stocks and bonds, and making money off the interest rate differential. With the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential in place, this business is quite comfortable.

But this year the rules suddenly changed. The Fed began to cut interest rates, while the Bank of Japan instead raised rates significantly. The interest rate differential went from wide to narrow, and then to almost none. The pressure to close positions has come. In order to repay yen loans, these housewives have to sell off dollar assets on a large scale. This is not a small action - we are talking about forced closures on a trillion-dollar scale.

Imagine, trillions of dollars in risky assets simultaneously crashing into the market. U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks are the first to bear the brunt, disrupting the pricing system. Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks are tightly bound together, so they can't escape either. Once liquidity tightens, risky assets must collectively make way.

What’s even stranger is the divided state of the US economy itself. The AI concept is supporting one side of growth, while the traditional economy is gasping for breath. The Fed's interest rate cuts and invisible QE are like pouring a cup of water by a raging fire. It’s fundamentally just a drop in the bucket. Market risk aversion is heating up, but BTC's status as a safe haven has not yet been truly recognized by institutional investors, and it is more easily dragged down by liquidity tightening and the sell-off of risk assets.

Ultimately, the key link of global liquidity is changing. The reallocation actions of Japanese housewives may directly impact the market more than every word from the Fed chairman. The gray rhino has already charged in, and all risk assets need to find a new balance.

Can BTC break out into an independent market trend this time? Or will it be swept along by the tide of global capital return? What do you think?