Arthur Hayes: The altcoin season has never ended, it's just that traders missed out on the winners.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic shift from frenzy to freeze in 2025. The market liquidation event on October 10 resulted in over $19 billion in funds evaporating from the market, particularly in the altcoin market.

Many alts are still at low prices today; for example, the latest price of DEVVE on Gate is $0.2076, with a price change of -73.93% over the past year.

The trading price of Metis (METIS) on Gate is $5.56, which is far from its 52-week high of $148.87.

01 Market Performance

The altcoin market currently presents a pathological scene. Over the past year, a large number of altcoin prices have plummeted, trading volumes have shrunk, and market sentiment is generally pessimistic.

The price of Bitcoin reached 124,000 USD this year, and its market value briefly surpassed that of Google, ranking fifth in global asset market value.

However, just as Bitcoin is making great strides, altcoins are struggling to keep up. Arthur Hayes bluntly pointed out: “Shitcoins are sick.”

Retail traders, a group that once brought significant volatility and liquidity to the altcoin market, have sharply decreased this year. Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific region at Gemini, revealed to DL News: “Those traders who once made crazy profits during these times have disappeared.”

02 underlying reasons

The reasons causing the difficulties in the altcoin market are multi-faceted, including structural flaws and changing market dynamics.

Hayes pointed out that many alts lack “product-market fit.” Their fully diluted valuations reach billions of dollars, but when asked about actual customers and revenue, they often have “nothing.”

Many projects resemble high-valuation, low-circulation venture capital tokens, making it difficult to continuously attract new investors.

The market liquidation on October 10, 2025, became an important turning point for the alts market. Over $19 billion in funds were liquidated.

Hayes believes this has led to a massive redemption of funds by hedge fund investors, triggering a continuous selling pressure that has trapped alts in a sluggish state.

03 turning point signal

Despite the bleak appearance of the market, Arthur Hayes sees a turnaround signal.

As the Federal Reserve implements its new tool “Reserve Management Purchase” plan, increasing the money supply by $40 billion each month, Hayes believes this will change the market landscape.

The more important catalyst is the clarification of the regulatory environment. The year 2025 is seen as a “watershed” year for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.

This year, the U.S. Congress passed the first federal stablecoin bill, establishing a new federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins. These measures provide unprecedented certainty for the Crypto Assets market and clear the way for large-scale institutional capital entry.

04 Trading Strategy Reform

The new market environment requires traders to completely change their strategies, and Arthur Hayes has made clear recommendations for this.

First, we must give up the expectation of “history repeating itself.” Hayes emphasized: “This is a new phase, and new factors will bring new momentum.”

The traditional model of “Bitcoin rising first, followed by alts” is no longer applicable; traders need to rethink their trading strategies and pay attention to new market trends.

Second, strictly select high-quality projects. When choosing coins, Hayes focuses on two core elements: project narrative and cash flow generation capability. He points out that the current market places more emphasis on whether projects can generate stable cash flow.

“If you buy at the right price, it's not a problem.” Hayes stated. He emphasized entering at a reasonable valuation rather than chasing market trends and buying at high prices.

05 Specific Opportunity Areas

Based on the new market logic, some specific areas of alts show stronger recovery potential.

In the recent market fluctuations, Layer 2 scaling solutions have shown relative resilience. Taking Metis as an example, as of December 22, its price on Gate is $5.56, an increase of 8.39% from the previous day.

Decentralized finance protocols are another area worth关注. Projects that can continuously generate real returns and provide value back to token holders, such as Pendle and Ethfi mentioned by Hayes, are more likely to lead in a market recovery.

With the clarification of the regulatory framework in the United States, compliant stablecoins and regulatory-friendly infrastructure projects may usher in new opportunities.

Future Outlook

Just when the market was losing confidence in alts, Arthur Hayes made a surprising move: “It's time to rummage through the trash.”

The inventor of perpetual contracts is watching the price fluctuations of tokens such as DEVVE and METIS on trading platforms like Gate and gradually building positions.

The uptrend season for alts has never really ended; the question is whether traders hold the tokens that will rise.