Galaxy Research Director boldly predicts: Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of 2027, as the market awaits a turning point.

According to the market forecast for 2026 published by Alex Thorn, the research director of Galaxy Digital, Bitcoin is expected to reach a high of $250,000 by the end of 2027.

He stated that the trend in 2026 is too chaotic to predict, but the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in 2026 (exceeding the $126,080 set in October 2025) still exists.

01 Core Predictions: 2027 Target and 2026 Fog

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, has put forward a clear and ambitious long-term goal in his outlook for 2026: Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

This judgment is based on macro trends. Thorn points out that the continued expansion of institutional access is resonating with the gradually easing monetary policy and the urgent demand in the market for non-dollar hedging assets.

He further explained that in the next two years, Bitcoin is very likely to be widely accepted as an asset to hedge against currency devaluation, much like gold.

However, the road to $250,000 is not a smooth one. Thorn particularly emphasized that 2026 will be a year filled with great uncertainty, with market trends being “too chaotic and difficult to predict.”

02 Market Reaction: Short-term Fluctuations and Long-term Structure

At the same time as the Galaxy report was released, the Bitcoin spot market is experiencing typical year-end volatility. According to Gate's market data, the BTC price showed a seesaw pattern on December 22.

At one point during the trading session, it fell below 88,000 dollars, then rose back above 89,000 dollars. As of the latest data, the BTC/USDT price is fluctuating in the range of 88,836.9 dollars to 89,028.9 dollars.

This short-term price fluctuation precisely confirms the description of “high uncertainty” in the Galaxy report regarding the market. Observing from a longer cycle structure, the Bitcoin market is undergoing profound changes.

Thorn pointed out that the long-term volatility of Bitcoin is experiencing a structural decline. Part of the reason comes from the larger scale of covered call selling and the introduction of Bitcoin yield generation strategies.

03 Uncertainty Analysis: The Wide Range Revealed by the Options Market

The current pricing of the options market intuitively reflects the market's divergence and confusion regarding the medium to short-term outlook. According to data cited in the Galaxy report:

By the end of June 2026, the pricing in the options market shows that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 is almost equal.

By the end of 2026, the market believes that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to 50,000 dollars or soaring to 250,000 dollars is similarly close.

Such a wide price range is quite rare in traditional assets, and it clearly reveals the growing pains and divergences experienced by the crypto market during its maturation.

04 Asset Maturity: Transitioning from Growth Markets to Macro Assets

A noteworthy trend is that the current Bitcoin volatility smile curve shows that the pricing of put options at the volatility level is higher than that of call options, which was not the case six months ago.

This pricing model is usually found in mature macro assets like gold, rather than in high-growth technology assets. This signifies a fundamental change in the market structure and nature of participants for Bitcoin as an asset class.

Thorn believes that this trend of “maturation” may continue. Regardless of whether the price of Bitcoin continues to decline and approaches the 200-week moving average, the maturity of this asset class and the degree of institutional adoption are continuously increasing.

“2026 might be a relatively dull year for Bitcoin,” Thorn wrote in the report, “Whether it ultimately closes at $70,000 or $150,000, our bullish outlook on its long-term prospects will only become more firm.”

05 Macroeconomic Resonance: Institutions, Policies, and Non-Dollar Hedge Demand

The core driving force pushing Bitcoin towards $250,000 comes from the resonance of three major macro trends.

Firstly, the continuous expansion of institutional access has brought unprecedented stable capital flows and compliance frameworks to the market. Secondly, the gradually easing monetary policies of major global economies have weakened the appeal of fiat currencies.

Finally, the global market's urgent demand for non-US dollar hedging assets continues to heat up under multiple geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Thorn summarized that these three forces reinforce each other, making it very likely that Bitcoin will be widely accepted as a core asset for hedging against currency devaluation, similar to gold, within the next two years.

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