A well-known investment firm's analyst recently expressed the view that the current Bitcoin cycle, which occurs once every four years, may have reached its end—not that the rise is forever over, but that the crazy phase of this cycle may be coming to a close.

Why do you say that? History speaks. If you look at the accounts, both the big bull markets in 2013 and 2017 were followed by roughly a year of adjustment. Following this rhythm, 2026 may be the year to enter a "rest year". The market is like this; after a significant rise, it always needs to catch its breath.

So how does it look in the short term? Analysts believe that Bitcoin may test around $60,000 and then find a stable position. He drew a "warm line": the range of $65,000 to $75,000 is crucial. It would be fine if it can stabilize here; once it falls below, the chill of winter will truly arrive. Looking at history, when it surged to $126,000 in October this year, both the time cycle and price trends fit the "peak window" of past bull markets, and the momentum has been exhausted.

What problems are currently occurring in the market? Several signals are worth noting: first, liquidity is tightening, and less and less money is coming in from outside, making it increasingly difficult for those holding high-leverage long positions. Secondly, on-chain data is quite alarming—approximately 34 billion dollars of early profit-taking is being liquidated every month. The most dangerous aspect is that 63% of investors have their costs concentrated above 95,000 dollars; once this price level is breached, panic selling may lead to a cascading effect.

In the long term, this analyst maintains an optimistic attitude towards Bitcoin. However, he believes that in the short term, it needs to enter a "seasonal adjustment" mode, which may require a cooling period of about a year. From an operational perspective, it is important to hold the defense line between 65,000 and 75,000. To put it simply: it has risen enough and needs to take a break, stock up on supplies in advance, and prepare seriously for winter.