#BTC对标贵金属的竞争格局 The Fed's policy direction has suddenly changed, causing market sentiment to fall. The latest data shows that traders' optimistic expectations for a rate cut in January have completely reversed, with the probability dropping below the crucial 20% mark, while the probability of maintaining high interest rates before March has risen to 45%. What does this shift mean? The feast of US dollar liquidity is about to come to an end, and the short-term "blood-sucking" mode will continue to drive. The pressure faced by encryption assets is evident—the sentiment freezing point is approaching.

But don't be quick to give up. History has an interesting rule: the three interest rate cut expectations in 2023 fell through, yet they couldn't stop Bitcoin from surging from 25,000 to 44,000. It seems that the reactions in the futures and spot markets often go against mainstream expectations.

What are the institutions doing? The quiet accumulation of spot chips, the unchanged bullish positions in the options market, and the mysterious funds supporting during each major fall—these signs reveal the true intentions of the large players. They do not care about short-term interest rate speculation; they are focused on longer cycles.

For ordinary traders, the strategy is simple: spot $BTC and $ETH are the tickets to enter a bull market and should not be easily discarded. Keep enough ammunition to deal with sharp falls, as that is often the best buying point. Leverage trading is a suicide tool during volatile periods, so do not be deceived by the thrill of high multiples. Additionally, the halving event in April is worth marking on the calendar, as historical data shows that unusual movements often occur before and after such significant events.

Behind each expected cooling phase lies a preparation stage before a new round of rise. Those who hesitate see noise, while those who plan see opportunity. The train for the next growth cycle is under maintenance, and those who get on the platform early have an advantage over those who scramble at the last minute.