#BTC对标贵金属的竞争格局 Year-end curse or year-end surprise? Will Bitcoin follow the Christmas market trend?

Every year around this time, Wall Street starts talking about the "Santa Claus Rally"—the last 5 trading days of December plus the first 2 trading days of January in this time window. History tells us that during this period, the stock market is likely to rise, but what about the cryptocurrency market? It seems to depend a bit more on chance.

Numbers speak: The huge difference between the stock market and the coin market

The performance of the S&P 500 has been quite stable. Based on data since 1950, the probability of an uptrend in this market is as high as 79%, with an average increase between 1.3% and 1.6%. Just mentioning the numbers might not feel impactful, but looking at the recent Christmas Eve of 2024, the S&P 500 rose by 1.1% within this market window. Stability has been the consensus over the years.

Bitcoin is different. Its volatility is outrageous—up 46% in 2016, and then down 14% straight in 2014. Saying "wild fluctuations" is not an exaggeration at all. From this perspective, Bitcoin does not follow the seasonal patterns of the traditional stock market; it is more about the market's temperament and macro liquidity.

The problem before us now

Since the S&P 500 often performs strongly at the end of the year, and Bitcoin frequently dances to the rhythm of the U.S. stock market, logically speaking, if this wave of stock market momentum really takes off, Bitcoin might benefit from it to some extent; at least from the perspective of risk appetite, it can catch a breath. Goldman Sachs' trading department's recent judgment also confirms this point—they said the market is currently in an "overwhelmingly positive seasonal period."

However, it must be made clear: historical patterns ≠ future guarantees. Macroeconomic news and changes in liquidity can strike back at any moment, and seasonal patterns are just paper in front of a real black swan.

In simple terms: The seasonal rise of the traditional stock market is about to unfold, and whether the cryptocurrency market can rebound by taking advantage of this remains to be seen.

$ETH $BNB $DOGE