The market is still spinning in confusion, but some deeper changes have actually quietly taken place.

Recently, while looking at the data, I had some feelings. Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $87,000, which indeed makes many people anxious. But what truly warrants concern is not the price itself, but what is happening in the underlying macro environment.

First, let's take a look at the economic data from the United States. The CPI year-on-year for November fell to 2.7%, with the core CPI dropping to 2.6%—the lowest level since 2021. To be honest, this speed is a bit surprising.

**The policy turning point is not that far away**

The Federal Reserve just cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but then immediately sent a hawkish signal—only expecting to cut rates twice next year. The market hasn't reacted yet, so Bitcoin's performance is a bit sluggish.

But this situation won't last long. The rate of inflation cooling is faster than expected, while the momentum of economic growth is decreasing. In this environment, can the central bank continue to tighten policies? It won't hold for long. Historically, in this critical moment, the market often senses the direction in advance.

Think about last year's situation - when interest rate cut expectations just emerged, Bitcoin once surged over 75%. Now, although the situation is similar, the underlying fundamentals are actually more solid.

**How much longer will investors' numbness last**

Looking at the friends around me, most people are still waiting and observing. According to data, since Bitcoin reached its historical high of $126,000 in October, there has been a nearly 30% correction. This correction has made many people feel that a bear market might be coming, but looking at it from another perspective - this could actually be a window for positioning.