Recently, a research report from Wall Street went viral - a leading bank directly set a 12-month target price for Bitcoin: $143,000. Currently, the coin price is around $88,000, which means there is still 62% pump potential. It does sound enticing, but we need to calmly analyze the logic behind this market trend.

In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between 80,000 and 90,000 around the New Year. 70,000 is a critical support level; if it falls below this position, the confidence of the bulls may take a significant hit. However, the long-term logic is still quite solid: funds from spot ETFs have been continuously flowing in, the "Clarity Act" is promoting the compliance process in the industry, and large funds such as pension and sovereign funds are eager to try. Once the regulatory framework is further clarified, market liquidity will be directly maximized.

From the perspective of market extrapolation, there are three possible trends. In the baseline scenario, the target price of $143,000 is relatively safe. However, in the event of an extreme bull market, Bitcoin could potentially surge to around $189,000, presenting a doubling opportunity. Of course, one cannot ignore the downside risks—a pullback to $78,500 is also possible, which means a drop of over 10% from the peak.

The pricing power of Bitcoin is no longer solely determined by speculative players; it is necessary to consider the trends in the macroeconomy and the net inflow data of ETFs. These two factors often provide relatively clear directional signals.

What do you think? Can Bitcoin successfully surge above $140,000? Do you think the extreme bull market scenario of $189,000 is really possible?