#BTC资金流动性 Precious Metals Market Analysis: Gold prices surge to a historic high, how to operate in December?

Recently, gold has been really hot. After December 18th, the gold price completely shook off the previous range-bound situation and directly surged. By the 22nd, it broke through the $4400/ounce mark, reaching a high of $4435.48, setting a new historical record. Behind this wave of increase, macro factors are playing a significant role.

**Why is gold so strong? Three core driving factors**

Regarding U.S. economic data, the November CPI came in at 2.7%, lower than expected. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the highest in four years. With these two pieces of data released, the market began to heavily bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026, with rate cut expectations being significantly raised. Additionally, rumors about the new Federal Reserve Chair leaning towards a dovish stance have instantaneously reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a significant positive for gold prices.

Geopolitically, support is also strong. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the friction between the United States and Venezuela is escalating, which has heightened the market's risk-averse sentiment. At the same time, central banks around the world are expected to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold throughout 2024, providing solid bottom support for gold prices due to this structural demand.

The capital rotation in the commodity market is also a catalyst. On the evening of the 22nd, the last period strengthened risk control on silver futures, and after the night market took effect on the 23rd, the funds that were previously in silver began to flow significantly into the gold market, further pushing up the gold price.

**How to operate in the short term?**

Don't blindly chase the highs at this position. The gold price has increased by more than 1.7% in a single day, and the RSI at the 4-hour level has already entered the overbought zone, posing significant risks. If it pulls back to the position of $4380/oz, you might consider a light long position, with a stop loss set below $4350, targeting $4450. If the gold price breaks through $4450 directly, you can also follow up, but make sure to control your position, keeping it below 30% of the total holdings.

**What is the long-term logic?**

The overall logic of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is still in place, and the trend of the central bank's continued gold purchases has not changed. Therefore, starting from the strong support level of $4300, it's advisable to gradually position yourself. In the medium term, there is still room for gold prices to rise. Don't think about short-term windfall profits; a stable layout is more important.

**Data to focus on next week**

The U.S. GDP data for the third quarter on the 23rd is something to pay attention to. If it is announced above expectations, it may trigger a brief pullback in gold prices, but that could instead be a good opportunity to replenish positions. In the absence of a change in the overall direction, pullbacks are usually points of entry.