Wheat Futures End Mixed Amid Softer Export Demand and International Supply Adjustments

Friday’s truncated trading session painted a complicated picture for the grain complex, with wheat contracts displaying divergent directional moves across major exchanges. The key takeaway: export momentum is slowing while global production estimates are rising, creating conflicting signals for price direction.

Price Action Tells a Split Story

The CBOT wheat December contract closed at $5.31, posting a modest 2-cent gain as it extended this week’s 4-cent advance. March futures, however, retreated 2 cents to finish at $5.38 1/2, suggesting some profit-taking in the deferred months. Over at the Kansas City exchange, December KCBT wheat inched up just half a cent to $5.17 3/4, while the March contract surrendered 2 1/2 cents to close at $5.27 1/2—despite December being up 6 3/4 cents for the week.

Minneapolis spring wheat showed relative strength, with December MGEX contracts climbing 2 3/4 cents to $5.79 1/4 (up 14 1/4 cents on the week), though March gave back half a cent to $5.78. Minimal delivery activity underscored thin conviction: only 2 notices were issued against December KC wheat and 34 against spring wheat contracts, with zero deliveries on Chicago wheat.

Export Sales Miss the Mark

Here’s where the session turned decidedly bearish: the USDA reported just 341,306 MT of wheat sold during the week of October 16—below trade estimates and marking a three-week low. This softer export pace raises questions about demand resilience heading into the end-of-year period. The upcoming USDA data release for the week of October 23 will be critical; trade estimates currently range between 350,000 and 650,000 MT, a wide band that reflects genuine uncertainty about where export momentum is headed.

Global Supply Pressures Mount

International supply estimates continue to drift higher, adding overhead resistance. FranceAgriMer puts the French wheat crop at 98% planted as of late November, with crop conditions ticking down 1 percentage point to 97%. The European Commission bumped its EU production estimate to 134.2 MMT, a 0.8 MMT increase from the previous forecast, while raising 2025/26 ending stocks to 11.5 MMT (up 0.7 MMT month-over-month).

Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lifted its wheat production estimate to 25.5 MMT—a 1.5 MMT increase—signaling stronger-than-previously-expected supplies from the Southern Hemisphere. These rising global inventories provide a ceiling for price appreciation, even as nearby contracts find support from traditional seasonal demand patterns.

The mixed close Friday reflects this fundamental tug-of-war: supportive weekly gains in some contracts versus tepid export demand and ample international production pushing back against sustained rallies.