Where's The Smart Money Going? Hedge Fund Legend Reduces Chip Giant Stake, Eyes Two Recovery Plays

The US equity landscape continues to navigate choppy waters as major indexes signal investor hesitation. Market watchers cite mounting concerns about stagflation risks—the dangerous cocktail of sluggish economic growth paired with stubborn inflation—amplified by trade tensions, supply chain pressures, and regulatory uncertainty. In volatile times like these, tracking institutional capital flows becomes essential intelligence. Form 13F filings offer exactly this: a quarterly window into where serious money is positioning itself.

Paul Tudor Jones’ Tudor Investment has built its reputation on disciplined macro-investing and rigorous risk controls. The hedge fund recently made a significant portfolio adjustment, cutting its Nvidia holding by approximately 36% during Q4. The move reflects classic risk management—whether through profit realization, valuation recalibration, or year-end positioning—but more notably, it freed up capital for selective redeployment into two turnaround narratives worth monitoring.

Intel: From Laggard to Potential Contender

The semiconductor landscape is shifting beneath investors’ feet, and Intel stands at an inflection point. The company’s fiscal 2024 results told a sobering story: revenues contracted 2.1% year-over-year to $53.1 billion, while net losses ballooned to $18.8 billion compared to a $1.7 billion profit the prior year. Yet beneath the headline pain lie catalysts that attract sophisticated investors.

The launch window for Panther Lake architecture processors opens in H2 2025—this is Intel’s showcase moment for its 18A process node. Critically, the company isn’t keeping this technology confined to internal use. It’s actively licensing 18A to external foundry customers, a strategic broadening that could reshape competitive dynamics. Microsoft and Amazon are among the marquee names sampling these capabilities, while rumors suggest Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices are evaluating 18A for specialized applications. If Intel captures even a fraction of this external demand in H1 2025 as expected, it positions the company as a meaningful alternative to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s competing 2-nanometer rollout.

Beyond foundry ambitions, Intel commands an undeniable stronghold: seven of ten PCs globally run Intel architecture. The company is also mobilizing to contest the AI accelerator space through Jaguar Shores, its next-generation system-level solution targeting data center workloads. The US government’s $7.86 billion grant commitment—contingent on meeting construction milestones—further de-risks the turnaround thesis. With most bad news arguably priced in, the risk-reward calculus has shifted considerably.

Amazon: The Cloud Opportunity Remains Substantial

Amazon’s stock has surrendered over 21% from its February 2025 peak, dragged down by sector rotation, tariff jitters, and skepticism about AI monetization. Some investors worry that efficiency gains in large language models could dampen AWS demand. Superficially compelling, but strategically incomplete.

AWS exited 2024 with an annualized revenue run rate of $115 billion, cementing its role as Amazon’s profit engine. The infrastructure itself is improving: proprietary silicon partnerships, AI training and deployment platforms, and advanced applications are actively attracting workload migration. Precedence Research projects the global cloud infrastructure market expanding from $263 billion today to $838 billion by 2034. AWS, commanding roughly 30% share, is geometrically positioned to capture this growth.

The story extends beyond cloud. Amazon’s advertising segment reached a $69 billion annualized run rate by year-end 2024, leveraging first-party e-commerce data in ways competitors cannot replicate. E-commerce unit economics are simultaneously improving through logistics optimization and robotics deployment.

From a valuation lens, Amazon trades at a 29.2 forward P/E—meaningfully compressed from its five-year 55.4 average. Combined with durable competitive moats and diversifying profit streams, the current pullback offers entry appeal at a reasonable multiple.

The macro backdrop remains uncertain, but patient capital following institutional flow patterns has historically been rewarded.