US Wheat Markets Navigate Week-End Trading as Global Supply Forecasts Shift

Trading in wheat futures resumes this Friday morning at 8:30 CST following Thursday’s market closure. The commodity complex showed mixed performance across major exchanges, with most contracts closing with modest gains on Wednesday.

Price Action Across Major Contracts

Chicago SRW futures advanced 1-2 cents during Wednesday’s session, while KC HRW contracts held steady to 4 cents higher. However, MPLS spring wheat futures retreated 2-4 cents, signaling divergent momentum across the wheat complex. Open interest declined across key venues, with Chicago contracts seeing 5,885 contracts removed and Kansas City dropping 1,869 contracts.

December delivery activity proved minimal on first notice day, with zero issuances against CBT wheat contracts but 2 deliveries recorded against KC wheat and 34 against hard red spring wheat. This limited activity suggests traders remain cautious ahead of fresh export data.

Week-End Data Points and International Supply Adjustments

Export sales figures for the week ending October 16 will be released this morning. Market participants anticipate between 350,000 and 650,000 MT of wheat sales during that period.

International production estimates continue to evolve. FranceAgriMer places the French wheat crop at 98% planted as of late November, with crop conditions standing at 97%. The European Commission raised its EU production estimate to 134.2 MMT, marking a 0.8 MMT increase from previous forecasts. Meanwhile, ending stocks for 2025/26 were bumped up to 11.5 MMT, representing a 0.7 MMT improvement.

Argentina’s harvest outlook strengthened as well, with Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raising its production estimate to 25.5 MMT—a 1.5 MMT upward revision from earlier projections.

Settlement Prices on Wednesday

• Dec 25 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.29, up 1¾ cents
• Mar 26 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.40½, up 1¼ cents
• Dec 25 KCBT Wheat settled at $5.17¼, up 4 cents
• Mar 26 KCBT Wheat settled at $5.30, up 1¾ cents
• Dec 25 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.77½, down 3½ cents
• Mar 26 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.79½, down 2¼ cents

As the week winds down, wheat traders will be watching export commitments and gauging how international production adjustments influence near-term price direction across these contracts.