Recently, the market has been quite active, and every move by the Fed has stirred the nerves of the encryption community. To truly understand the direction of the upcoming market trends, it is essential to clarify the logic behind this.

First, let's get an intuitive understanding of the data: a single-day injection of 6.8 billion US dollars in liquidity, accumulating to 38 billion US dollars over ten days. This scale is not trivial; the core mechanism behind it is the treasury bond repurchase— the Fed actively enters the market to purchase treasury bonds, injecting funds directly into the financial system. In simple terms, when the market lacks money, "the central bank" provides real cash.

There is a detail that is particularly worth paying attention to: the current repurchase limit is approaching the cap of 40 billion USD. Whether the Fed will continue to expand or start tightening next directly determines the funding environment of the encryption market.

The core judgment has arrived. In the short term, ample liquidity means that more hot money will flow into high-volatility assets, thus supporting the encryption market, which is the main reason why the recent market can remain stable. However, from a long-term perspective, risks are brewing. The market is increasingly reliant on this "market rescue" operation, much like the human body’s dependence on painkillers—once the policy changes, the market's ability to withstand pressure will drop sharply.

For mainstream assets like ETH, we are currently in a policy dividend window, but when this window will close depends on the Fed's next move. Liquidity is a double-edged sword; when abundant, it pushes up asset prices, but when tightened, it can easily trigger adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed meetings and repurchase plan updates, as these signals can predict market direction better than any technical indicators.