BlackRock dumped over $250 million of BTC and ETH in a single day, which looks like an isolated incident but actually reflects a deeper macro logic. This is not an isolated dumping, but rather the result of the collision of three forces: the global economic situation, regulatory expectations, and the cycles of the crypto market.

The biggest variable in the global financial market right now is whether the Federal Reserve will pivot. The data is clear – the market is betting that the probability of the Fed cutting rates before December 2025 has risen to 92%. If this is true, it would mean that the world could enter its first easing cycle in many years. Theoretically, easing policies are very beneficial for risk assets, and crypto assets, being high-risk and high-reward, should benefit even more.

But the problem lies here. BlackRock's dumping actions are actually contrary to this expectation. Why? Institutions are actually betting on policy uncertainty. They are worried about a sudden rebound in inflation data, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, or the Fed changing its stance to delay interest rate cuts or even restart tightening. At this moment of unresolved risks, securing profits in advance is less about being bearish and more about hedging against policy variables.

Another key factor is that global liquidity is being reconfigured. The movement of the US dollar and the asynchronous pace of central bank policies directly affect the flow of funds between different asset classes. The crypto market, being the most sensitive area to liquidity, naturally feels the impact of this restructuring first.