Recently, the trend of TAO has been quite interesting. The trading volume on a certain leading exchange suddenly surged 8 times, with a 24-hour trading amount reaching 85 million USD, but the coin price hasn't really moved. This phenomenon of "volume rising but price not rising" could either mean that the market maker is secretly manipulating the accumulation, or that some big news is on the way. To be honest, rushing in at this point is like shooting a gun in thick fog, you have no idea where the bullets are flying.

The technical analysis is even more interesting. On the 4-hour chart, TAO has been consolidating around 221, and the MACD has just formed a golden cross above the 0 line—this is usually a bullish signal. However, the problem arises at the hard resistance level of 235 above, and further up at 255, which is a strong resistance zone; without real volume, it can't break through. The support levels below are at 215 and 195, with the final line of defense at 170.

But there is a contradictory point here: if the MACD golden cross is valid, the price should quickly rise. But what about now? It's consolidating with low volume. It's like the engine has started, but the wheels are still spinning in place. It seems very unusual.

From a trading perspective, I think the most likely trend for TAO tonight is to fake a surge first, and then be smashed down. The market maker's strategy is very clear: attract retail investors with the signals of "MACD golden cross + explosive volume" to follow the trend, and then suddenly dump when the price reaches around 230. The specific expectation is as follows: first, test upwards between 228 and 235, but if it encounters pressure, it will fall back. Once it breaks below the support of 215, the decline will accelerate, targeting 195 or even 170.

In other words, if you see a rebound in a downtrend, that is not a reason for you to chase the highs, but rather an opportunity for you to reduce your position and exit. This logic should be remembered.

For players in different states, the operational thinking is also different. If you are currently in a flat position, the most comfortable approach is to observe and not rush to enter the market. If you have positions, you should start considering reducing your holdings when the price rebounds to around 230, don't wait to be trapped. For those who want to short, you can consider entering around 228, with a stop loss set above 240, and target to gradually take profits at the three support levels below.