$MERL's recent trend is quite interesting and deserves some discussion. This coin is indeed under pressure right now, with several bad signals stacking up across different dimensions—from the technical chart, on-chain capital flow, to subsequent supply release. The bears currently have the upper hand.

From a technical perspective, MERL has been fluctuating repeatedly in the range of $0.42 to $0.46 recently. It has attempted several times to break through the resistance level of $0.46 but has not been able to sustain it. Each time there is a rebound, the trading volume appears somewhat weak, and the phenomenon of price increasing while volume does not is quite evident, indicating an overall weak structure.

The funding aspect is even more interesting. Occasionally, large transfers to exchanges emerge on-chain, which are usually understood in the industry as a precursor to dumping. At this time, coupled with the overall market sentiment being not very high, buying pressure can hardly hold up, and selling pressure can easily be amplified.

On the supply side, although there is no cliff-like risk of a large unlocking, the linear release mechanism adopted by MERL means that the circulating supply will steadily increase. Early holders see this and most will choose to reduce their holdings with even a slight rebound, which directly limits the upward price potential.

In summary, there are technical resistances, unusual movements in the capital market, and persistent supply pressures, with these three forces resonating together, leading to a dominant selling pressure at present. It will be difficult for MERL to break out of this weak oscillating situation in the short term.

In terms of operational strategy, you might consider opening a short position with a light load when it rebounds to a relatively high level. Setting the stop loss above $0.50 would be safer. Initially, target $0.35.