Spot gold has just broken the 4400 USD/ounce mark for the first time in history, and even surged to near the 4500 USD area, which can be described as a spectacular market trend. The increase this year has already exceeded 60%, a rise that is indeed rare.

There are three forces driving up gold prices. The first is the ongoing tension in geopolitical situations, which continuously attracts safe-haven funds to the gold market. The second is the strong expectation in the market for the Federal Reserve to shift towards interest rate cuts, which significantly lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold. The third is the firm purchasing actions of global central banks—since 2025, the net gold purchases by central banks have exceeded 1,200 tons, providing the strongest underlying support for gold prices.

However, there is indeed a risk signal that cannot be ignored at the moment. The daily RSI indicator has surged to 81, entering the severely overbought area. This usually indicates a significant pullback pressure in the short term, with a technical downturn potentially occurring at any time.

From a positional perspective, the upper resistance zone is locked in at $4480 to $4500, while the main support level below is $4400, and further down there is the line at $4380.

From a trading perspective, the medium-term upward trend has not changed - the MACD indicator is still in a golden cross state. However, at the current high level, it is clearly not prudent to rush to chase the price in the short term. A more practical strategy is to patiently wait for the price to fall back to the support area and stabilize before gradually building positions, as this approach will provide a more balanced risk-reward ratio.

In the long term, geopolitical conflicts, liquidity expectations, and central bank gold purchases have formed a solid bull market foundation. However, short-term technical pressures are also very real. The current frenzy in gold will continue to unfold, and the key is to grasp the rhythm.