The Bitcoin market has indeed been a bit stagnant. Since the 23rd, BTC has failed to break through the 90,000 mark for the 6th time in 8 days. The key now is whether the market during Christmas can turn the situation around.

My logic is very simple: as long as the US stock market maintains an upward trend during the Christmas period, BTC won't die. But the reality is so heartbreaking—yesterday, the Asian market was quite stable, and retail investors were actively buying in, but when the US stock market opened, everything fell apart overnight. The tech stocks opened high but gave it all back, with no obvious bad news, purely pessimistic sentiment taking center stage. Many people just don't believe that there can really be a rally at the end of the year.

Looking at the daily chart structure, the area between 90000-90500 is a fortress—it's both the upper boundary of intensive trading and a psychological barrier. The repeated failures in breaking through indicate that there is heavy selling pressure here. However, conversely, if the US stock market can stabilize and rebound, and the sentiment improves, BTC would also have the opportunity to break through.

The key support has been moved up to the range of 86865-86620. This is not only the recent low but also close to the short-term rising trend line on the daily chart. If the closing price falls below this level, the short-term rebound pattern will be in real danger.

The 4-hour chart is a bit tangled. If it pulls back to 86865-86620, you need to carefully observe if there are signals of "not falling further"—such as long lower shadows or RSI divergence. The first level of resistance for a rebound is around 89300 (which is roughly the accumulation zone of chips from today’s opening). If it can break through quickly, there is a possibility of hitting 90000-90500 again. However, if it rebounds directly to around 90500 and starts to stagnate, that would become a short-term high position.

The trading strategy is as follows: go long near 86890-86100 with a target of 90500-91000; go short near 93000-93800 with a target pullback to 91000-90500.

One thing to remember: the market volatility is high and liquidity is thin at the end of the year, so position management is more critical than just predicting the right direction. If the U.S. stock market continues to underperform, then the rebound expectations should be significantly lowered.