There is an old trap but very accurate rule that has hit again: about 18 months after the Halving, Bitcoin often reaches its peak.

Understanding the rhythm of the previous round is key. In 2020, there was a Halving, and by November 2021, Bitcoin surged to a historical high of 69,000 USD, followed by a full year of nightmare—a 77% crash, landing directly at 15,500 USD by the end of 2022. Following this "script," will the current round starting from the Halving in April 2024, projected to around October 2025, also reach a historical peak, followed by a brutal downward cycle?

However, this time the variables are significant. The Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved, led by traditional financial giants like BlackRock. This is not just a simple addition of a trading tool— it may fundamentally break the existing cyclical logic of Bitcoin. Looking at the long-term performance of gold after the ETF approval in 2010, the market is beginning to have new imaginations: by 2030, could Bitcoin also grow by dozens of times? Starting from the $39,000 mark when the ETF was approved, if we calculate based on 10-20 times, this no longer seems like an unrealistic dream.

But what follows is a "happy trouble": a large influx of institutional funds into ETFs may raise the bottom of Bitcoin while lowering volatility. In other words, the common occurrence of a drop of over 70% in the past, which provided retail investors with a calm opportunity to buy the dip, is likely to become increasingly rare. If the adjustment is limited to 60%, the required increase to rebound from the bottom back to previous highs will no longer be several times the space as it was in the past.