The GDP data from the United States is set to be released tonight, which is definitely a critical moment for the Crypto Assets market. The quality of the data directly affects the Fed's judgment on policies, and these judgments will ultimately be transmitted to the prices of risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The key lies in the concept of "expectation difference." The current market expectation benchmark is a growth rate of 3.1%. Behind this seemingly simple number lies a huge trading opportunity:

If the data published is below 3.1%, it indicates that economic growth is lower than expected, which will lead the market to start fantasizing about the possibility of interest rate cuts. Historically, every time there is liquidity easing, risk assets tend to enjoy a wave of increase— the crypto market is usually the one that follows suit the most fiercely. In the short term, there may be many buying opportunities coming in.

Conversely, if the data is ≥3.2%, it indicates that the economic resilience is quite strong, and the Fed has no reason to rush to cut interest rates. In a high-interest-rate environment, investors prefer to place their money in fixed-income assets, significantly reducing the attractiveness of risk assets. At that time, the crypto market will likely have to bear the pressure of a correction.

In any case, the fluctuations before and after the data release are bound to be significant. It is advisable to closely monitor the reactions in the interest rate futures market - the changes there best reflect the true expectations shift of institutional investors.

What about you? Do you think tonight will be the dawn of interest rate cuts or a continuation of high rates? Have you adjusted your positions in advance? Share your thoughts in the comments.