Cattle Futures Take a Step Back as Market Consolidates Losses

Monday’s trading session brought pressure across the cattle futures complex, with live cattle futures shedding 42 cents to $2 per contract through midday. This pullback arrives on the heels of last week’s cash market activity, where northern regions kicked off near $220-222 and consolidated toward $225 by week’s close, while southern trading ranged from $225-226.50.

Feeder Cattle Under Selling Pressure

Feeder cattle futures showed steeper declines, dropping $4 to $5 during Monday’s session. The CME Feeder Cattle Index maintained its upward trajectory despite the futures weakness, climbing another $1.93 to reach $343.73 on December 4. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City feeder cattle auction rolled out an estimated 7,200 head for sale, with early bidding activity noted on the upside—suggesting underlying support from cattle buyers.

Shifting Money Flows in Managed Accounts

Commitment of Traders data revealed meaningful position adjustments as of October 28. The combined live cattle futures and options net long position contracted by 8,546 contracts, settling at 116,355 total contracts. In the feeder cattle sector, managed money pulled back their net long exposure by 3,404 contracts, bringing that position to 21,323 contracts. This reduction signals hesitation among large traders ahead of potential seasonal shifts.

Export Demand Faces Headwinds

Beef export sales for the week ending November 6 totaled 8,776 MT—marking a 7-week low that underscores softer international demand. Shipments improved slightly to 10,845 MT compared to the prior week, but the export sales figure suggests buyers are taking a more cautious stance.

On the domestic wholesale front, boxed beef prices moved lower Monday morning. The Choice-to-Select spread widened to $13.85 as Choice boxes declined a penny to $361.19 and Select dropped $2.93 to $347.39—a spread widening that typically reflects demand imbalance favoring lower-tier cuts.

Slaughter Activity Above Year-Ago Pace

USDA federally inspected cattle slaughter came in at 600,000 head for the week, well above the prior week due to holiday scheduling effects but still 14,183 head below the same period last year. This moderately lower year-over-year pace adds context to the current price pressure.

Contract Settlement Levels

The selloff materialized across the deferred cattle futures curve:

• Dec 26 Live Cattle: $226.725, off $0.425
• Feb 26 Live Cattle: $226.000, down $1.150
• Apr 26 Live Cattle: $225.725, lower by $1.950
• Jan 26 Feeder Cattle: $334.375, down $4.675
• Mar 26 Feeder Cattle: $328.950, off $4.350
• Apr 26 Feeder Cattle: $328.150, lower by $4.075

Monday’s cattle futures retreat reflects a combination of profit-taking, reduced export appetite, and positioning adjustments among managed money, even as underlying cash markets and the feeder index hint at residual support.