To conclude: the end of the year will not be a one-sided market, but rather a pattern where prices are locked in a certain range, oscillating repeatedly, and then selectively breaking through at critical moments.

Several Facts About the Size of Options —

The "23 billion dollar options" circulated online are clearly exaggerated. The real situation is that the BTC options settlement scale is around 2-3 billion dollars by the end of December, mainly concentrated around December 26. Many people think these options will lead to a direct sell-off or price surge, but that's not the case. The core function of options is to "pin" the price at the position where the most people lose money.

From a structural logic perspective, the current characteristics are very clear - both Calls and Puts are piled up in the same wide range, with both bulls and bears locked in the middle. What is the most comfortable state for market makers? Prices do not rise or fall, fluctuating repeatedly within the range, causing both sides to constantly post margin. This is a typical Max Pain pinning environment.

The key price level is actually very clear. No need to guess specific numbers; just look at the structure.

There is a dense area of previous highs above, filled with liquidation positions and Call bulls. Once the price approaches, it will face significant selling pressure. There is also a support level below, mainly a defensive position for Put bears. This middle range is likely to be the place that will be repeatedly stirred up by the end of the year.

The real turning point comes from two conditions: first, the time window for concentrated options delivery, and second, the trading volume that breaks through key structural positions. Breakthroughs without volume are all superficial.