The market is staging a grand drama of division.

On one side, traditional safe-haven assets are in a frenzy. Gold has surpassed the $4,490 mark, silver is approaching $70, and three-month copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange have even broken through $12,000. This clearly reflects that funds are crazily flowing into the safe-haven camp, and the market is anticipating the inflection point of inflation is coming. Meanwhile, over in the US stock market, things are also booming, with the S&P 500 reaching a new high and the Nasdaq following suit.

But what about Bitcoin? Things are tough over there. Recently, the market experienced a violent adjustment, and the performance in Q4 was the worst since 2018. One investor vividly described it— the entire market was like a grand year-end party, with all major asset classes dressed up and having a great time, but only Bitcoin was left out, squatting in the corner.

The wounds from that are still present. The aftershocks of that drop were too great, and the market has not fully recovered yet. Experienced traders are all being patient, and no one dares to act recklessly. What are they thinking? Rather than chasing high-priced gold, it's better to hold onto low-positioned Bitcoin. Once greed leads to chasing highs, both sides will suffer.

**The macro environment is brewing changes**

Although the market is not ideal at the moment, some signals are beginning to emerge from a macro perspective.

The latest voices come from the Fed's policy circle. Hassett has again stated that the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts is "far behind the situation." In other words, this is pressuring current officials – stop dragging your feet, it's time to turn on the money printing machine. The underlying message behind this rhetoric is profound: the expectation for liquidity expansion is strengthening.

What is even more noteworthy is the latest proposal from the finance department. Some officials have suggested adjusting the official inflation target range from the previous 2% target to "1.5%-2.5%", or even possibly to "1%-3%". This proposal is significant—if approved, it would mean that the authorities implicitly allow for a higher level of inflation. When the ceiling for inflation is raised, the purchasing power of existing currency will come under further pressure.

This is the real change. The reason gold is rising joyfully now is merely because it is the first to react to this trend. However, as the ultimate inflation hedge tool, Bitcoin's reaction period may be longer. Once macro policies truly advance in this direction, it will be Bitcoin's stage. What seems like loneliness now may very well be the calm before the storm.