Who is the true dip seller? On-chain data reveals the real sellers of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has dropped to the 85,000 USD level, which is a key support area that long positions must defend to prevent further price falls. After failing to return to higher levels, the price movement has slowed, and fluctuations have decreased, intensifying the atmosphere of market apathy and panic.

The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has sharply deteriorated, with more and more analysts openly discussing the possibility that the bear market may continue into next year. In this situation, understanding who the real sellers are is far more important than the price movement itself.

According to the recent crypto quantitative report, Bitcoin has dropped from the approximately $882,000 range to around $850,000, providing us with clear on-chain market behavior data that reveals the essence behind it. The exchange fund inflow data segmented by short-term holders (South Sea) and long-term holders (LTH) indicates that the fall is not driven by structural distribution from long-term investors.

Historically, when long-term holders begin to sell Bitcoin, bear markets tend to accelerate. However, this behavior has not yet appeared, indicating that the current drop reflects position adjustments and risk aversion, rather than a shake-up of long-term beliefs. As Bitcoin price tests 85,000 USD, the market is not only assessing price support levels.

Short-term profit-taking, rather than structural allocation The crypto quantitative report article by Crazzyblockk provides an accurate analysis of the true driving factors behind the recent Bitcoin pullback. On December 15, when the trading price of Bitcoin approached $88,200, short-term holders sent approximately 24,700 Bitcoins to exchanges.

It is crucial to note that 86.8% of this supply has been profitable, while only 13.2% has been sold at a loss. In dollar terms, the profitable STH inflow exceeded $1.89 billion, far surpassing the sell-off caused by losses. This situation clearly indicates that the sellers are primarily recent buyers who chose to exit during market strength, rather than panic participants selling under pressure.

Who are the real dip sellers? On-chain data reveals the true sellers of Bitcoin image 0 Bitcoin long-term holder profit and loss inflow | Source: CryptoQuant On December 16, as the price fell to around $86,000, the total inflow of STH sharply decreased to only 3,900 Bitcoins. Although this portion of the inflow ultimately ended in losses, its limited scale indicates that the selling pressure has been exhausted rather than intensified. While the proportion of realized losses has increased, the absolute number has not risen—this important detail is often overlooked in surface market analysis.

The behavior of long-term holders also corroborates this positive interpretation. Within two days, the inflow of funds from long-term holders remained sluggish, dropping from about 326 BTC to just 50 BTC. There are no signs indicating that this group is surrendering or engaging in large-scale selling. Overall, the data suggests that the market cooling is due to short-term profit-taking rather than structural selling pressure.

Bitcoin weekly price structure and key support level dynamics Bitcoin's price has significantly retraced from its cycle high, and it is currently consolidating around the range of 85,000 to 88,000 USD. This area has important technical significance. The price is currently interacting with the rising 100-week moving average, which has been providing dynamic support throughout the uptrend since 2023. So far, buyers are trying to hold this level to prevent the weekly closing price from falling further below this level.

Who is the real dip seller? On-chain data reveals the true sellers of Bitcoin. image 1 Bitcoin is consolidating near key support levels | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView Structurally, the market has transitioned from a strong impulsive expansion phase to a correction phase. The previous correction broke below the 50-week moving average, marking a shift in the price discovery mechanism from momentum-driven to consolidation and mean reversion. However, as long as the Bitcoin price remains above the 200-week moving average (which is currently well below the current price), its long-term trend remains unchanged.

During the pullback, the trading volume decreased, indicating that the selling pressure has not increased sharply. This supports the view that this round of pullback is a correction rather than a distribution. From a risk perspective, if the $85,000 region cannot be maintained, there may be a further pullback to the range just above $70,000.

Conversely, to restore the bullish structure and momentum on the weekly chart, it is necessary to reclaim the area of 90,000 to 92,000 dollars.