2025-12-24 06:24:02

A recent study pointed out an interesting phenomenon: when measured by the 2020 US dollar purchasing power, Bitcoin's actual value is approximately $99,848. In other words, it hasn't truly reached the $100,000 milestone yet.

This is not to deny how much Bitcoin has risen, but to highlight a often-overlooked issue—inflation is quietly changing our understanding of price milestones. For this institution-driven rally, this discrepancy is surprisingly realistic.

The root cause is straightforward: the purchasing power of the dollar is declining. Over the past few years, the amount of goods a dollar can buy has significantly decreased. To put it simply, the current dollar is equivalent to 0.8 of the 2020 dollar. This may sound abstract, but when converted into concrete numbers—$100,000 in 2025, in 2020 standards, is actually worth $80,000.

So, what would it take to reach the same purchasing power as $100,000 in 2020? Bitcoin's nominal price would need to approach $125,000. And the high point of this rally? It just happens to be near this region. That’s why this topic has sparked controversy.

For institutional investors, they are not concerned with nominal gains. Large institutions like pension funds care about real returns—that is, how much you actually earn after deducting inflation. This is also a hurdle Bitcoin must overcome to become part of macro asset allocation.

The current issue is not just this. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended CPI releases due to funding issues, and different statistical methods produce varying inflation rates. This makes assessing Bitcoin's true value even more complicated.

Market reactions have already shown everything. After Bitcoin surged in October, it then fell nearly 30%. Looking at the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the asset size dropped from $169.5 billion on October 6 to $120.7 billion on December 4. These figures are there, indicating the market is digesting these uncertainties.

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JustHodlIt

· 2025-12-26 13:46

Oh my God, so it’s not actually 100,000 yet? This inflation thing is really next level. --- Wait, is 125,000 the real 100,000? My mind is a bit confused, I need to react. --- Institutions are sharp, they’re looking at actual returns, while retail investors are still fixated on nominal prices and fooling themselves. --- CPI has stopped, who the hell knows what real inflation looks like. --- After peaking in October, it started to fall, and the ETF shrinking by 50 billion indicates the market is really panicking. --- So basically, money is becoming worthless, and Bitcoin hasn’t really gone up that much, right? --- This logic is a bit convoluted, but thinking about it, it’s really the case... Inflation is secretly cutting into the gains. --- So according to this algorithm, should we wait until 125,000 to celebrate, everyone?

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SignatureLiquidator

· 2025-12-24 06:52

Oh no, I've seen through this inflation trick a long time ago, just a numbers game. --- So, $100,000 isn't really a big deal; it depends on how much the dollar is worth. --- What the institutions care about is this—after accounting for inflation, if we retail investors are just happy, that's all. --- Wait, CPI has even paused releases? That's pretty outrageous. How can we judge the true value? --- Fallen from 169.5 billion to 120.7 billion, this capital outflow is quite fierce, definitely digesting something. --- Actually, the real target is 125,000, all those previous hype should be discounted. --- Dollar devaluation is unavoidable, but Bitcoin won't become more valuable just because of that; the logic is a bit skewed. --- I just want to know, what standard do we use to measure true value? This question is more complicated than Bitcoin itself.

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DYORMaster

· 2025-12-24 06:46

Ha... That's why institutions are all calculating real returns; nominal prices can't fool them at all. --- So, the figure of $100,000 actually doesn't mean much; the key is purchasing power. --- Wait, CPI has been suspended? Then how do we calculate real inflation... Things are even more confusing now. --- That 125,000 position really hit the mark; no wonder the market reacted so strongly. --- That's why I keep saying that DYOR must consider macro factors, or you're just blindly opening positions. --- The dollar depreciation is the behind-the-scenes driver; no wonder BTC has outperformed so much in recent years. --- Fallen from $169.5 billion to $120.7 billion... this wave of escape was quite fierce. --- Inflation is just a black box; official data can no longer be trusted.

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LiquidatedTwice

· 2025-12-24 06:38

Damn, this logic is really incredible... Did inflation eat away $20,000 out of $100,000? I should have just hoarded dollars from the start, what's the point of all this fuss. So institutions are actually looking at real returns now, all the nominal prices are just illusions. $125,000 is the real $100,000, this number is a bit crazy. A 30% drop is just paying for this wave of uncertainty, normal operation. Wait, if CPI isn't released anymore, how do we calculate real value? This is too absurd. Over $1 billion has run away, showing that everyone is losing confidence. I don't believe you, this is just institutions telling stories to retail investors. Inflation is the real invisible harvesting machine, more ruthless than a crash.

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RamenStacker

· 2025-12-24 06:33

Damn, this logic—inflation calculations show Bitcoin hasn't broken 100,000 yet? So my previous gains were fake, haha

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