Silver prices are stabilizing around $58... Expectations of a Fed policy shift(pivot) are keeping both sides in suspense

Market Hesitation Deepens Ahead of Fed FOMC Meeting… Trying to Match the Rhythm in the $58 Range

December Rate Cut Probability Rises to 89.4%… Non-Interest-Bearing Assets Gain Relative Value

JOLTS Employment Data Likely to Be a Short-Term Turning Point… 7.2 Million as a Critical Threshold

International silver market(XAG/USD)is currently in a box near the $58 level, unable to find a clear direction ahead of the Fed’s December FOMC. During the Asian after-hours, spot silver continues to move within a narrow range around $58 per ounce, with market participants maintaining a cautious stance until clear policy signals emerge.

The Fed’s pivot mood is intensifying… Re-evaluating silver’s investment value

The recent market trend is driven by expectations that the Fed is highly likely to pivot towards rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch data, the futures market assesses an 89.4% probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in December, lowering it to 3.50~3.75%. This indicates that such a scenario is almost a certainty.

If rate cuts materialize, the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like silver decreases, boosting its attractiveness. The current dollar weakness and accommodative policy stance traditionally create a favorable environment for precious metals.

Key Fed officials are also supporting this trend. New York Fed President John Williams mentioned in a speech last month that “U.S. economic growth is slowing, and the labor market is gradually cooling.” Such comments from influential Fed figures have further heightened investor expectations of a pivot.

Employment Data Will Decide the Direction… JOLTS 7.2 Million as a Key

The critical variable determining short-term silver prices is employment data. Investors are watching the October JOLTS(job openings and turnover) report, scheduled for release at 15:00(GMT). The market expects U.S. job openings to be around 7.2 million.

If actual figures fall short of expectations, it would confirm weak labor demand and increase the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts. This could lead to a weaker dollar and push silver prices higher.

Conversely, if job openings exceed expectations, it would suggest the economy is more resilient than anticipated, raising concerns that the Fed might be cautious about rate cuts. This scenario could limit silver’s upside.

Ultimately, the current silver market is maintaining technical balance around the $58 level, waiting for catalysts like JOLTS and the FOMC. The possibility of silver breaking out of this range depends on the Fed’s policy shift(pivot) and signs of employment weakness.