Ethereum 12.26 Expiration of 6 Billion Options Full Analysis【Key Price Levels + Long/Short Judgment + Volatility Warning】

This analysis is based on real-time current market data, with no unnecessary commentary—precise positioning against ETH's current price of $2950, holiday market sentiment, and the latest on-chain upgrade background.

◆ Essential Core Points to Watch

The expiration of $6 billion worth of Ethereum options on 12.26 (UTC time, early morning of 12.27 in China) will trigger a significant options expiration. The most concentrated strike zone is between $2900 and $3000, accounting for 73.2% of the total options volume.

Interestingly, ETH's current price of $2950 is exactly at the midpoint of the bullish and bearish threshold—this is no coincidence.

From the options structure perspective, call options slightly dominate (52% vs 48%), but the difference is negligible, representing a typical balanced game state. There is no absolute dominance by either side.

◆ Remember these 3 price points, and that’s enough

【Scenario where bulls take the lead】
If ETH holds above $2950 (by closing price) on that day, a large number of call options will be exercised, triggering passive follow-up by institutions to increase their positions. Plus, the positive expectations from the on-chain upgrade will be realized, prompting capital inflows.

The first resistance on the upside is at $3020, with a strong resistance at $3100—this is the ceiling for the bullish side in this round of options battle.

【Scenario where bears turn the tide】
Conversely, if the 12.26 close falls below $2950, the bears win, and a large number of put options will be exercised. Institutions will then reduce their positions accordingly, and market sentiment will turn cautious.

In this case, support levels to watch are at $2900 and $2850.