Memory supply shortage drives the rally, and Winbond Electronics (2344) technical indicators confirm that the bullish signal has officially started.

With the global memory shortage trend intensifying, Winbond Electronics’ stock hit the daily limit-up today, closing at NT$67.9, a single-day increase of 9.87%, with both trading volume and value leading the Taiwan stock market. More notably, this is the third consecutive trading day that Winbond’s share price has risen, with a cumulative increase of 20.37%, driving the entire memory sector including Macronix and Powertech to rally across the board.

Capacity Gap Widens, Traditional Memory Enters Supply-Side Reform Period

Industry dynamics are rapidly evolving. Major international memory manufacturers are adjusting their strategies, shifting production focus to high-margin, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), resulting in squeezed supply of traditional DRAM and Flash, leading to a severe supply shortage in the market.

According to the latest statistics, the inventory weeks of major global DRAM suppliers have plummeted from 13-17 weeks at the end of last year to just 2-4 weeks as of October this year, indicating the entire industry has entered a state of ultra-low inventory tension. Meanwhile, the supply landscape for DDR4 memory has undergone a fundamental shift since Q3—leading manufacturers worldwide are prioritizing capacity allocation to DDR5 and HBM, coupled with synchronized adjustments by Chinese peers, causing a sharp contraction in DDR4 market supply.

However, demand-side conditions are the opposite. Enterprise-grade solid-state drives, industrial computers, and various storage devices still require DDR4 specifications, with actual market demand far exceeding expectations, creating a typical “Three-Characteristics” scenario—characterized by supply shortages during the business cycle, sustained strong demand, and structural imbalance.

Winbond Becomes a Direct Beneficiary, Revenue Hits Three-Year High Confirming Industry Reversal

Winbond’s consolidated revenue for November 2025 reached NT$8.629 billion, nearly 5% growth from the previous month, and a 38.7% increase year-over-year, setting a new high in over three years. In the first 11 months of this year, cumulative revenue reached NT$79.635 billion, a 5.85% increase year-over-year.

The logic behind these figures is clear: by proactively expanding capital expenditure and securing active customer orders, Winbond has become a direct beneficiary of the memory supply shortage trend. Industry inventory turnover also confirms this—inventory turnover days for Winbond and other original manufacturers like Macronix have significantly decreased from the normal 185 days to around 140 days, reflecting tangible improvements in revenue and profitability.

Memory Prices Surge Remarkably, Growth Still Possible in 2026

Looking at contract prices, DDR4 memory has surged from a low point of just over NT$1 per chip at the beginning of the year to 5-6 times that in Q4. In the spot market, DDR4 16Gb prices have even soared to about US$100 per chip, far above the industry reference price of US$45.5, with rare instances of spot DDR4 prices surpassing DDR5.

Foreign institutional research reports believe that this price rally could continue into 2026, emphasizing that investors should not rush to take profits. The supply gap for NOR Flash is expected to widen further in 2026, with Q1 prices possibly increasing by over 20%. Looking ahead for the full year, DRAM contract prices are forecasted to continue rising but at a slower pace, with DDR5 and DDR4 prices estimated at NT$17 and NT$12 per chip, respectively.

Dual-Track Capacity Expansion Plan Initiated, Winbond Expected to Reach Profit Growth Peak

To seize this market opportunity, Winbond is pushing forward with capacity expansion strategies. The Taichung plant will continue to increase output of NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and mature process DRAM, while the new Kaohsiung plant’s DRAM monthly capacity is planned to increase from the current 15,000 wafers to 24,000-25,000 wafers, with mass production of 16nm advanced process products expected in Q1 2026. The CUBE wafer-level stacking technology platform is also anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue starting from 2027.

Market analysts forecast that by 2026, the global DDR4 memory supply-demand gap will expand to over 10%, with the pace of downstream customer migration to DDR5 and the changing price gap between DDR4 and DDR5 being key variables. Driven by growing demand in AI, industrial control, automotive, and network communications, Winbond is poised to enter its most prominent profit growth phase in 2026.

Institutional Investors Increase Holdings, Dual Support from Capital and Fundamentals

Capital flows are equally impressive. Last week, data showed that foreign investors, trust funds, and proprietary traders bought over 50,000 shares of Winbond in total, with foreign investors alone net buying over 42,000 shares, indicating a very clear bullish stance. Supported by favorable industry fundamentals, rising product prices, and concentrated chip holdings, the overall memory sector’s operational growth outlook remains optimistic.

Taiwan’s memory industry currently benefits from the “spillover effect” driven by rising prices of standard DDR4 and DDR5 memory. Due to less advanced HBM and 3D stacking packaging technologies, Taiwanese manufacturers are able to gain relatively concentrated benefits from the traditional memory price increases. Overall, Taiwanese memory stocks remain typical cyclical plays, with future stock performance closely tied to memory market prices and end-market demand fluctuations.

From a technical perspective, Winbond’s stock price has already touched the upper Bollinger Band and remains above all short-term moving averages, forming a clear bullish alignment. It is currently poised to challenge the high of NT$69.1 since 2025. Supported by supply shortages and strong demand fundamentals, the sustainability of this upward trend warrants ongoing attention.