Dogecoin is experiencing conflicting influences: on one hand, supply issues; on the other, declining meme popularity.

1. **Discussion on reducing block rewards** – The proposal to cut rewards by 90% could reduce inflation but risks miners abandoning the network.
2. **ETF issues** – Current funds are not attracting capital; new filings indicate continued interest from institutional investors.
3. **Macroeconomic challenges** – Strong GDP growth reduces the likelihood of rate cuts, putting pressure on risk assets, including DOGE.
## Detailed Analysis
### 1. Proposal to reduce block rewards ( mixed consequences )
**Overview:**
In April 2025, a controversial proposal appeared on GitHub to reduce Dogecoin’s block reward from 10,000 to 1,000 DOGE, which would decrease annual issuance from 5 billion to 500 million coins. Supporters argue this would lower inflation (currently around 3%) and make Dogecoin more similar to Bitcoin in terms of limited supply. Critics warn that miners might leave the network if rewards decrease before price appreciation compensates for the loss, threatening network security.
**This means:**
Approval could enhance DOGE’s long-term value by slowing supply growth, but in the short term, miner withdrawals could destabilize the network. History shows DOGE’s inflation has not prevented price increases, but shifts in perception are crucial.
### 2. Acceptance of ETFs and bearish factors (y
**Overview:**
The Dogecoin ETF launched in November 2025 has yet to attract significant capital—Grayscale and Bitwise funds hold a total of $2.05 million, with no new inflows for 8 consecutive days. However, the sixth amendment to the 21Shares application )December 2023( indicates continued interest from institutional investors, despite weak demand.
**This means:**
Low ETF inflows reflect waning retail investor interest and competition from Bitcoin and Ethereum products. Nonetheless, approval of new filings )such as 21Shares’ TDOG( could revive speculative interest if macroeconomic conditions improve.
) 3. Macro pressures and bearish impact ###
**Overview:**
US GDP growth in Q3 reached 4.3%, while core PCE inflation remains high at 2.9%, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in early 2026. Higher interest rates strengthen the dollar and reduce liquidity for risk assets. DOGE’s 30-day correlation with Nasdaq in December hit 0.78, increasing market risk.
**This means:**
While altcoins fell 16.89% in the month compared to BTC’s 0.78% decline, DOGE faces strong selling pressure if risk aversion persists. The fear and greed index at 27 (extreme fear) indicates weak demand from buyers.
Dogecoin’s future depends on balancing miner incentives (reduced rewards), recovery of ETF interest, and resilience to adverse macro conditions. Key support is at $0.13 — breaking below could trigger a liquidation cascade down to $0.09. *Can DOGE’s meme popularity offset its inflationary structure in a high-interest-rate environment?*