Grasp the 2024 US CPI release rhythm and gain insights into inflation trends

Complete Schedule of US CPI Release Times in 2024

Investors must precisely grasp the timing of the US CPI releases, as this data often serves as the catalyst for significant asset price fluctuations. As an important indicator of the US Consumer Price Index, each CPI release can rewrite market expectations.

The US CPI release time is fixed on the first business day of each month or the closest business day, with specific times varying due to time zone conversions:

• Daylight Saving Time period (mid-March to early November): 20:30 Taiwan time
• Standard Time period (mid-November to mid-March): 21:30 Taiwan time

The complete 2024 CPI release schedule (Taiwan time) is as follows:

Understanding the Three Major Inflation Indicators: CPI, Core CPI, PCE

Market attention to inflation data is extremely high, but many investors easily confuse the subsequent impacts following CPI release times. Understanding the differences between CPI, Core CPI, and PCE is essential for accurately gauging the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations.

The core difference between US CPI and Core CPI lies in their calculation scope: CPI includes all consumption items and is highly affected by large fluctuations in food and energy prices, whereas Core CPI deliberately excludes these two categories to better reflect underlying inflation pressures.

The difference between CPI and PCE is even deeper. CPI uses a Laspeyres weighting method, while PCE employs a chain-weighted method. When oil prices surge, PCE is more sensitive to consumers shifting to alternative energy sources, automatically reducing the weight of crude oil, thus smoothing out peaks and troughs.

In monthly and annual indicators, year-over-year growth rates are more valuable because they exclude seasonal factors, providing a more stable reflection of actual price trends compared to month-over-month changes.

Investors should focus on two key indicators:

• US CPI Year-over-Year Growth Rate: As the earliest inflation data released, markets react most sensitively to it, often causing significant asset price adjustments.
• US PCE Year-over-Year Growth Rate: Released slightly later but is the core basis for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

Breakdown of US CPI Composition

To understand the data implications behind the timing of US CPI releases, one must recognize its internal structure. The US CPI mainly consists of the following components:

• Food and beverages (13–15%)
• Housing rentals (30–40%)
• Healthcare (7–9%)
• Energy (6–8%)
• Clothing and apparel (2–3%)
• New and used vehicles (total 5–8%)
• Transportation services (5–6%)
• Education and communication (6–7%)
• Leisure and entertainment (3–5%)

Housing and food & beverages account for nearly half of the overall CPI, so investors should prioritize monitoring the price trends of these two categories.

Driving Forces Behind US CPI in 2024

US elections and geopolitical conflicts will be the main drivers influencing CPI trends in 2024. During the presidential campaign, candidates tend to overpromise policies, and combined with current geopolitical tensions, this may accelerate de-globalization processes, pushing up prices and posing substantial resistance to CPI decline.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut pace is equally critical. According to CME Group data, the market predicts the highest probability of a 6-basis-point rate cut in 2024, reflecting expectations of an overall downward trend in CPI throughout the year, despite potential slight rebounds in Q2.

From a global logistics cost perspective, the crisis in the Red Sea has increased shipping costs, directly raising freight rates on Asia-Europe routes, which will gradually be reflected in CPI data. Compared to the logistics disruptions of 2020 or the Longsheng incident in 2021, the current impact scale is relatively limited but still warrants close monitoring.

30-Year Historical Review: CPI and Economic Cycles

Since the 1990s, the US has experienced four distinct CPI cycles, each associated with major economic events:

• First cycle (July 1990 – March 1991): Savings and loan crisis and Gulf War oil shocks triggered recession.
• Second cycle (September 2000 – October 2001): Dot-com bubble burst combined with 9/11 attacks.
• Third cycle (January 2008 – June 2009): Subprime mortgage crisis fully erupted.
• Fourth cycle (from March 2020): COVID-19 pandemic caused economic stagnation, CPI rapidly declined, followed by massive Fed stimulus leading to soaring prices until June 2022, then gradually falling back as global logistics recovered.

This history clearly indicates that global logistics status is a key variable influencing US prices. When supply chains are smooth, inflationary pressures naturally ease.

Market Outlook After the 2024 US CPI Release Times

Based on IMF data, US GDP growth in 2024 is projected at 2.1%, with global inflation falling to 5.8%. Compared to the Eurozone’s 0.9% growth, the US economy remains relatively resilient, implying that inflation may not decline rapidly.

Coupled with factors like the volatile commodity prices in the first half of 2023 and ongoing crude oil inventory declines, CPI in the first half of 2024 may not continue to accelerate downward due to low base effects, and a rebound might even occur in Q2.

Overall, the forecast for US CPI in 2024 shows a “V-shaped reversal”: bottoming out in Q1, slight rebound in Q2, then declining in the second half, with the whole year still trending downward. This will exert some pressure on US stocks but with limited room for further decline.

Key Conclusions

Mastering the timing of US CPI releases and understanding the underlying data logic are fundamental for precise trading. Prepare thoroughly before CPI releases, paying attention to both Core CPI and PCE signals. Especially in the context of US election years and escalating geopolitical conflicts, heightened vigilance is necessary. While inflation is expected to decline in 2024, over-optimism should be avoided.