The Bank of Japan's October closed-door meeting minutes were unexpectedly leaked recently, revealing a noteworthy shift. According to the minutes, the committee collectively confirmed that inflation expectations among residents and businesses have reached the critical 2% target level. A more cautionary statement appeared in the minutes: "We must be highly alert to the risk of a broad-based rise in prices." The implications of this signal require careful interpretation.

During the meeting, there was a clear divergence of opinions within the Bank of Japan regarding the outlook. The hawkish members' view was relatively straightforward — inflationary pressures have already emerged, the 2% target is essentially achieved, and there is no longer a need to wait and see. The dovish members insisted that core inflation remains insufficiently stable and advocated for continued cautious observation. However, the consensus among participants was that the depreciation of the yen poses the greatest risk. Several members publicly pointed out that if the yen continues to depreciate, import prices could spiral out of control, leading to significant inflation overshoot.

The most insightful point in the minutes came from a member: "Inflation is likely to reach the target by spring next year, but the key condition is that wages must keep pace." This statement points to a critical variable — the outcome of Japan's wage negotiations in spring 2024 will largely determine whether the central bank will initiate interest rate hikes.

From the perspective of the crypto market, this chain of changes could have several potential impacts:

First, the yen's trend may face a turning point. If the long-term depreciation trend reverses, expectations of yen appreciation will rise, altering the current arbitrage trading landscape. Second, the global liquidity environment is changing. As the last bastion of negative interest rates worldwide, Japan's policy adjustments will reduce the supply of "cheap money," affecting global financial markets. Third, liquidity-driven factors in the crypto market are weakening. The previous bull market was directly related to large-scale global liquidity injections; now, with the liquidity turning point approaching, there is pressure on the valuation of risk assets.

For mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and BNB, this macroeconomic shift necessitates a reassessment. Tighter liquidity usually accompanies increased volatility and often signals a significant market environment shift. The current strategy should expand from purely technical analysis to tracking macro policy changes, representing a higher-dimensional market understanding.