Nasdaq 100 Index Technical Turning Point Analysis: How Strong Is the Defense at 25,200 Points?

The divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan has once again triggered market turbulence. On Monday, December 1, the Bank of Japan signaled a strong rate hike, causing market expectations for a December rate increase to surge from 58% to 76%. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of a 25 basis point cut pushed the US interest rate outlook higher, leading to a rapid narrowing of the interest rate differential between the two countries. Global bond markets experienced significant volatility—Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached 1.88%, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.09%, and Germany’s 10-year Bund climbed to 2.75%. Risk aversion intensified sharply, with the VIX fear index jumping by 5.45%.

The three major US stock indices all retreated, with the Nasdaq 100 ending its five-day winning streak, down 0.38%. Meanwhile, crypto assets also faced selling pressure, with Bitcoin plunging as much as 8% and falling below $84,000.

Technical Outlook: 25,200 Points as a Key Support Level

Looking at the Nasdaq 100 daily chart, despite a pause in the recent rally, the index remains above the short-term support/resistance level of 25,200 points, indicating that the bullish momentum remains resilient. The MACD buy signal continues, and the upward trend framework remains intact, suggesting that the current pullback is a normal technical correction.

If the Nasdaq 100 can hold above 25,200 points, it is likely to challenge the resistance zone around 26,000 points further upward. Conversely, a break below this critical level could risk halting the rebound.

Market Background: Policy Expectations Fully Priced In

Although there are risks regarding the policy directions of the US and Japan, market expectations for a Fed rate cut and a BOJ rate hike are already quite embedded. The reaction of the VIX index shows that, despite the increase in fear, the magnitude is limited, indicating investors’ strong adaptability to policy changes.

Additionally, robust earnings reports from US tech stocks and easing concerns over AI sector bubbles provide support for the market. President Trump is scheduled to host a cabinet meeting at 0:30 Taiwan time the next day and make a major statement at 3:00 a.m., which could serve as a news catalyst and bring a turning point.

Investment Implications

The Nasdaq 100 is currently in a technical correction phase, with 25,200 points serving as a pivotal level. As long as the index remains above this level, the bullish outlook remains intact, and investors can consider buying on dips to position for a rebound. However, if policy risks intensify beyond expectations and the 25,200-point level is broken, it will serve as an important warning signal.