#美联储降息预期 The key information in the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision this time is not in the interest rate itself, but in the reorganization of power at two levels:

**Micro level — Self-healing of the capital structure.** Saylor added nearly $1 billion worth of BTC last week, and Tom Lee's BitMine invested $429 million to buy ETH. These are not emotion-driven contrarian moves, but large institutions testing the market bottom's strength with real money. The $4 billion ETF outflows over the past two months seem astonishing, but Amberdata's data points to a clearer fact: this is a systematic closing of basis arbitrage positions, not a panic retreat of long-term capital allocation. Fidelity and BlackRock are still experiencing net inflows overall, indicating that the underlying logic of institutional allocation has not changed.

**Macro level — This is the true source of signals.** The Trump team is not just replacing the Federal Reserve Chair, but is rewriting the entire monetary power structure. From personnel arrangements (Hassett, Bessent, non-traditional central bank figures entering core decision-making circles) to the upward movement of term premiums, and ongoing questioning of the balance sheet regime, all these actions point in the same direction: power is shifting from the Fed to the Treasury. The spread between 12-month and 10-year US Treasuries is approaching a cyclical high, but this time it’s not because of economic improvement, rather the market is re-pricing who truly controls long-term interest rates.

Among the three paths for rate cuts next year, the first two (inflation decline, worsening labor market) require time, but the third — restructuring the Fed’s personnel composition — is what the Trump team is actively pushing. This means that in the coming months, there will be a surface appearance of chaos, but underlying a clear reorganization. Liquidity improvements will support risk assets, but for Bitcoin to truly break out, we need to wait until the new monetary framework becomes clearer. The short-term variables are not about the magnitude of rate cuts, but about the progress of this power game.