Looking at the patterns after Bitcoin halving events, we can see the trend. It's been almost 20 months since the last halving, and the previous three bull market peaks all occurred within 12 to 18 months after the halving.

In other words, we have probably missed that main upward wave. Recently, the market has indeed been weakening, and at this stage, it's not just about technical analysis anymore. How macro liquidity moves, how regulatory policies in various countries are adjusted, and whether there are new concepts being hyped—these are the key factors that determine the market direction. Simply looking at the cycle is not enough; all these factors need to be considered together.