Renminbi returns to the 6s era, and the once seemingly worry-free US dollar deposits have revealed their true nature in the face of exchange rate fluctuations.

On December 25, 2025, offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark in one go, marking the first time since September last year. Remember at the beginning of the year when the exchange rate was 7.35, at that time 7.35 million RMB could exchange for 1 million USD.

Let's do the math. If you had deposited the money into a USD fixed deposit with an annual interest rate of 4%, you would indeed get 1.04 million USD after a year—an apparent profit of 40,000. But when converting back to RMB, based on today's exchange rate, the actual purchasing power of this money might have shrunk. In 2025, a "stock, bond, and currency" triple-kill storm is forcing global investors to rethink the logic of asset allocation.

**Offshore RMB against USD breaks through 7.0**

Onshore RMB reached a high of 7.0061. This is not an isolated event; it reflects profound changes in the global currency landscape.

In the first half of this year, the US dollar index fell by 10.8%—the worst performance since 1973. Why? The market is beginning to worry seriously about the sustainability of US debt. The total US federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion. In a high-interest-rate environment, just the fiscal interest payments are soaring, directly shaking the credibility foundation of the dollar.

**The illusion of USD wealth management**

When RMB deposit interest rates decline, USD wealth management products with "4-figure" annualized yields indeed seem attractive. But this might just be a story on paper.

Experts' opinions are straightforward: even if USD interest-bearing assets generate interest income within 1 to 2 years, it doesn't necessarily translate into actual positive returns. The exchange rate risk variable is often underestimated by investors.