The first rule of trend investors: don't go against the trend.

That's also why — many people didn't lose money in #山寨币 during this cycle,
not because of high skill, but simply because they didn't buy at all.
There's only one reason:
👉 monetary tightening cycle, avoid high-risk assets.
To put it bluntly:
Cryptocurrency itself is already riskier than US stocks.
And in crypto,
except for $BTC BTC and a few other mainstream coins,
most tokens are just air.
At least US stocks have financial reports:

Tightening cycle

Good performance
👉 can still rise

What about crypto?

No financial reports

TVL might be borrowed

APR might be from stacking your own tokens

Users might all be farming airdrops

Protocols can even be centralized

Truly profitable protocols,
because they fear being classified as securities,
don't dare to tie yields to tokens.
So what does crypto rely on most of the time?
👉 FOMO.
And there are only three sources of FOMO:

Political stimulation

Economic stimulation

Technological stimulation

By 2025, all are present:

Politics: Trump + relaxed regulation

Economy: ETF / strategic reserves

Technology: AI + Crypto

But the problem is —
There’s not enough money.
Even US stocks are short of funds,
where does all that money for crypto come from?
Not to mention altcoins.
And the reality is:

Policy stimulation → for BTC

Economic stimulation → for BTC / ETH

AI narrative → barely holding

👉 Altcoins are hard to come by.
Will altcoin seasons come?
I think they will,
but not now.
More likely:
👉 Second half of 2026
The premise is:

No recession

The new Fed Chair clearly turns dovish

Faster and more aggressive rate cuts

Republicans fully support easing for midterms

There might be a rally,
but it doesn't mean new highs.
7→10K is a rise,
9→12K is also a rise,
10→15K is still a rise.
Rising is the result,
no one can precisely predict the position before the rise.
The real climax?
I lean more towards the 2028 presidential cycle.
That’s when full easing might truly happen.
So everything I do now,
👉 is in preparation for 2028.
And 2026,
more like a rebalancing window.
Just personal opinion,
not necessarily correct,
but at least —
I won't go against the trend and gamble blindly.