12.15 Market Analysis

Today’s movement is a typical range-bound oscillation, with a clear strategy—short when facing resistance above, go long at support below. If a breakout occurs, don’t hesitate—set strict stop-losses. The longer this sideways pattern lasts, the more intense the subsequent vertical move will be.

From a broader perspective, the bearish trend has already been locked in. But be cautious—an upcoming death cross on the monthly chart suggests a likely rebound. We saw a similar situation in January and February 2022, when a monthly death cross signaled a rebound that was followed by a sharp decline. History often repeats itself, so watch out for this trap of rebound tricks.

Core logic: Observe the performance at the upper and lower bounds of the range. Once broken, act decisively; also pay attention to technical changes at the monthly level to prevent a secondary decline after a rebound.