The recently released CPI data has exposed a serious issue — data quality has reached its lowest level in recent years.

The situation in October was particularly prominent: the estimated value of the core CPI components reached a record 40%. This may sound abstract, but the reality is startling — rent contributed 22 percentage points, while other goods and services accounted for an additional 18 percentage points.

Why are so many values estimates? According to the standard procedures of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, they collect price data for approximately 90,000 products and services each month to measure inflation. But when actual price data is missing, they fill the gaps with estimates. In normal years, these estimates typically account for about 10% of all data. But now? 34% of the overall inflation components are estimated from other items or regions.

Even more concerning is that this situation has occurred five consecutive times, with estimates exceeding 30%. Compared to the average levels from 2022 to 2024, the current figures are more than three times higher.

When the authenticity and accuracy of economic data decline, market participants' confidence naturally wavers. This not only affects economic decision-making but also triggers chain reactions in asset pricing expectations.