#美联储回购协议计划 $BEAT The story of should be understood this way: this wave is not crashing into the abyss, but rather a "shakeout and blood exchange" at high levels.

It looks like a decline, but in reality, it’s more like a normal pullback after a peak. The previous surge straight to 4.5 has already exhausted the market’s enthusiasm, and the subsequent series of bearish candles are completely within expectations. The price has broken below the short-term moving averages, and the EMA indicator has started to turn downward, indicating that short-term hot money is exiting, and those who took quick profits have already run. But there is a key detail—trading volume has not completely dried up, which suggests it’s not a full-scale stampede exit, but rather a selective shakeout.

The RSI has slid from a high level to a medium-weak zone, showing that market sentiment is cooling but not yet in extreme panic; the KDJ is sticking at low levels, with downward momentum clearly waning. In other words: it can’t be pushed down anymore, but it’s not yet time for a rebound.

The most probable next phase is a repeated grind between 1.8 and 2.1, gradually wearing out the less confident chips. If the price holds here and doesn’t break the previous lows, the next rebound will truly have profit potential; even if the overall market drags a bit more, a probe will only open a new opportunity window, not bad news.